The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a critical artery of Earth’s climate system, now stands on the brink of collapse. New research confirms that its failure would not merely disrupt weather patterns but unravel the delicate balance of global ecosystems, economies, and geopolitical stability, locking humanity into a future of cascading crises.

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The AMOC’s Vital Role in Earth’s Climate

The AMOC functions as a global conveyor belt, redistributing heat and nutrients across the oceans. Driven by temperature and salinity differences, warm surface waters flow northward from the tropics, releasing heat to the atmosphere in the North Atlantic. As this water cools and becomes denser, it sinks to the deep ocean and returns southward, completing the cycle (Rahmstorf, 2006). This process moderates Europe’s climate, transports oxygen to deep-sea ecosystems, and fuels nutrient upwelling—the rise of cold, nutrient-rich water that sustains marine food webs. A healthy AMOC also sequesters carbon dioxide in the deep ocean and stabilizes atmospheric jet streams, which govern weather patterns like the North Atlantic storm track (Smeed et al., 2014).

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Accelerated Warming and Aerosol Forcing: A New Paradigm

Recent work by Hansen et al. (2025) reveals that global warming has accelerated due to a “double whammy” of reduced aerosol cooling and underestimated climate sensitivity. The 2020 International Maritime Organization (IMO) restrictions on ship sulfur emissions, intended to improve air quality, reduced aerosol pollution by ~80% in key regions, removing a critical cooling mask and adding 0.5 W/m² of forcing globally. This reduction, combined with greenhouse gas-driven warming, caused a 0.4°C temperature spike in 2023–2024, breaching the 1.5°C threshold. Hansen’s analysis shows that IPCC models underestimate aerosol cooling by 50–100%, implying equilibrium climate sensitivity could exceed 4.5°C for doubled CO₂—far above the IPCC’s 3°C best estimate.

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Biospheric and Oceanic Collapse: Accelerating Warming and Tipping Points

A collapsing AMOC would unravel marine and terrestrial ecosystems while accelerating global warming through feedback loops. In the oceans, the shutdown of nutrient upwelling, a process critical to phytoplankton growth, would starve marine food chains, collapsing fish populations by 40–60% in the North Atlantic by 2100. Simultaneously, warmer, stagnant tropical waters would expand oxygen-depleted “dead zones,” suffocating coral reefs and pelagic species. On land, the abrupt cooling of northern latitudes would devastate boreal forests, while tropical ecosystems like the Amazon face intensified droughts, pushing them toward irreversible dieback and releasing 90–140 gigatons of stored carbon. These biospheric shocks would compound warming: reduced ocean carbon uptake and vegetation loss could add 0.3–0.5°C to global temperatures by 2100, independent of emissions. Worse, the AMOC’s collapse could trigger interconnected tipping points. Greenland’s ice sheet, destabilized by meltwater from AMOC-driven freshening, risks irreversible disintegration, while Southern Ocean warming accelerates Antarctic ice loss, raising sea levels by 2.5 meters by 2100. Arctic permafrost, thawing 5–10% faster due to disrupted atmospheric circulation, would release methane, a greenhouse gas 80x more potent than CO₂, over decades. Together, these feedbacks could lock Earth into a “Hothouse” trajectory, far exceeding current warming projections.

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Unseen Feedback Loops and Accelerated AMOC Collapse (2025 Update)

Groundbreaking 2024–2025 research exposes feedback mechanisms advancing faster than anticipated, demanding urgent recalibration of climate policies and collapse timelines.

1. Methane Wildcards: New Findings Could Reshape Projections:

(a) Subsea Methane Hydrates and Meltwater Discharge

• East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS): Beneath the icy silence of Antarctica, scientists have uncovered a hidden menace—towering columns of methane gas, some stretching 700 meters long, rising like ghostly chimneys from the seafloor. During a recent Spanish expedition aboard the Sarmiento de Gamboa, researchers observed these eerie plumes escaping from mud volcanoes and fractures in the Pacific margin of the Antarctic Peninsula, one of Earth’s fastest-warming regions (The Maritime Executive 2025). The methane, trapped for millennia as hydrate deposits—a crystalline mix of water and gas formed under pressure—is now destabilizing, hinting at a climate threat long feared but poorly understood. Current projections ignore Antarctic methane emissions and recent observations of such massive methane plumes does not bode well for other areas like the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS), a larger, older, and understudied region harboring vastly larger methane reserves.
• AMOC Impact from Meltwater Discharge: Two recent studies indicate Greenland’s ice loss is entering a crisis phase, driven by a dangerous synergy of accelerating ice dynamics and year-round subglacial meltwater discharge. The first study (Chudley et al., 2025) exposes a 25.3% surge in crevasse volumes at rapidly flowing marine-terminating glaciers since 2016, directly linking ice sheet acceleration to destabilizing feedbacks: crevasses act as highways for meltwater, weaken ice structure, and amplify calving—effectively turning Greenland’s margins into crumbling, high-discharge zones. The second study (Hansen et al., 2025) delivers a bombshell: winter subglacial meltwater, previously dismissed as negligible, is now confirmed to seep into fjords year-round. This hidden meltwater, generated by frictional heating and geothermal energy, upwells warm Atlantic water to gnaw at glacier fronts while stockpiling nutrients for explosive spring algal blooms. Together, these findings reveal a double blow: ice sheets are disintegrating faster from below due to relentless meltwater discharge, even in winter, while surface acceleration tears them apart from above. Current climate models, which ignore these cascading mechanisms, risk grossly underestimating Greenland’s meltwater hemorrhage. As warming intensifies, this dual assault threatens to unleash runaway ice loss, with dire implications for global sea-level rise and Arctic ecosystems. The message is clear: Greenland’s meltwater discharge is not just accelerating—it’s evolving into an unchecked, year-round crisis.

(b) Abrupt Permafrost Thaw

• Thermokarst Emissions Acceleration: A new study (Freitas et al. 2025) reveals that deep Arctic lake sediments, previously overlooked, are significant sources of greenhouse gases with profound climate implications. By incubating a 20-meter sediment core from Alaska’s Goldstream Lake, researchers found that anaerobic decomposition in thawed permafrost—particularly in ancient Yedoma and underlying fluvial deposits—produces methane and CO₂ at rates comparable to or exceeding aerobic processes, especially under warming temperatures. Crucially, anaerobic emissions at 10–20°C had double the global warming potential of aerobic emissions, challenging the assumption that shallow, oxygenated layers dominate carbon release. These findings suggest current climate models vastly underestimate the permafrost carbon feedback by neglecting deep sediment contributions. Wang et al. (2024) expose a climate time bomb in the Tibetan Plateau’s thawing permafrost: collapsing soils release 5.5 times more CO₂ under warming than stable ground, driven by microbial armies adapted to devour degraded organic matter. This explosive emissions surge, tied to thermokarst formation, threatens to double permafrost carbon losses, turbocharging global warming and demanding immediate action to defuse one of Earth’s most dangerous feedback loops.

2. Cloud-Ocean-Land Thresholds: The 2023 global temperature surge to nearly 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels—exceeding prior records by 0.17°C—was amplified by a record-low planetary albedo driven primarily by declining low-cloud cover over northern mid-latitudes and tropical oceans, according to satellite and reanalysis data, bridging a 0.2°C gap unexplained by anthropogenic warming or El Niño alone (Goessling et al. 2024). This albedo reduction, part of a multi-decadal trend, highlights uncertainties around contributions from internal variability, aerosol reductions, or emergent cloud feedbacks. AMOC Link: Cloud loss over the subtropical Atlantic raises sea temperatures, disrupting northward heat transport.

Ocean and Land Carbon Sink Decline

• Ocean Saturation: The ocean, Earth’s silent climate ally, is faltering. Müller et al. (2023) reveal that between 1994 and 2014, it absorbed a staggering 29 billion tons of human-emitted carbon per decade—but its power to offset our pollution is slipping. By the 2000s, its efficiency had dropped 15% as rising CO₂ overwhelmed its chemistry and currents shifted, with the North Atlantic’s deep-water engine sputtering while southern waters churned faster. This alarming trend, uncovered through global ocean data analysis, signals a critical vulnerability: the seas are struggling to keep pace with humanity’s carbon footprint. Even more unsettling, gaps between ocean storage and surface measurements hint at rogue carbon leaks, turning the ocean from a steady sink into a climate wildcard.
• Land Saturation: Curran and Curran (2025) found that natural systems like forests and soil, which absorb CO₂ from the air, are getting weaker at sequestering carbon. Their study, using data from Hawaii’s Mauna Loa Observatory, shows that since 2008, the amount of CO₂ absorbed during Northern Hemisphere summers has been dropping by about 0.25% each year. This decline—caused by wildfires, droughts, and thawing frozen ground—is making CO₂ levels in the atmosphere rise faster than before. For example, without this weakening absorption, the yearly increase in CO₂ would be 1.9 parts per million (ppm) instead of the current 2.5 ppm. The authors warn that global emissions must now fall by 0.3% yearly just to cancel out this lost natural absorption.

3. Revised AMOC Collapse Timeline Estimates

Threshold	Hansen (2025)	2025 Revised Timeline	Key Drivers
2°C Global Warming	2045	2035–2040	Methane surges, albedo loss
3°C Global Warming	2060–2070	2042–2048	Cloud loss, ocean sink failure
AMOC Collapse	2050–2070	2038–2045	Synergistic freshwater + warming

Key Revisions:

• AMOC Collapse by 2045: Greenland meltwater and an AMOC slowdown make collapse possible within two decades under SSP5-8.5.
• Regional Deadlines: Central North America faces 2°C by or before 2040 (Barnes et al, 2025) due to soil moisture-cloud feedbacks. Dry soils reduce evaporative cooling, increasing surface temperatures. Studies show regions like the U.S. Great Plains are hotspots for this feedback, where soil drying can intensify heatwaves by 1–3°C (Maraun et al. 2025). Low soil moisture may suppress cloud formation, allowing more solar radiation to reach the ground. Model simulations suggest this could add ~0.5°C to regional warming in semi-arid zones. Earth’s freshwater reserves are vanishing at a pace that eclipses polar ice melt, warns Seo et al. (2025). Between 2000 and 2002 alone, soil moisture—a critical buffer for ecosystems and agriculture—plummeted by 1,614 gigatonnes, nearly double Greenland’s ice loss during the same period. Satellite data, sea level spikes (~4.4 mm), and even Earth’s wobble (~45 cm pole shift) all point to a planet hemorrhaging water, driven by relentless droughts and unyielding evaporation. By 2021, recovery remained elusive, with projections suggesting this hydrological freefall is irreversible under current warming trends. The study paints a stark picture: human-driven climate change isn’t just melting ice—it’s draining the continents dry.

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Regional Cooling, Global Warming, and Ecosystem Collapse

A collapse of the AMOC would plunge northern Europe and the North Atlantic into abrupt cooling, 3–5°C within decades, while accelerating warming across the tropics and Southern Hemisphere. This divergence would mask regional cooling in the north but amplify extremes elsewhere. The Southern Ocean, for instance, could warm 2–3 times faster than the global average, destabilizing Antarctic ice shelves and krill populations vital to marine ecosystems. Meanwhile, the North Atlantic’s marine food webs face ruin: a 2025 Nature study projects a 40–60% collapse in phytoplankton blooms by 2100, decimating fisheries that sustain millions. On land, the Amazon rainforest, already ailing from drought, could lose 30–40% of its biomass by 2070, releasing vast carbon stores and accelerating global warming.

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Human Migration and the Fracturing of Geopolitical Order

The human toll of AMOC collapse would be catastrophic. A 2025 World Bank report warns of 200–300 million climate migrants by 2050, driven by drowned coastlines, failed harvests, and desertification. Northern Europe’s cooling could displace populations southward, while the Sahel faces existential drought, inflaming regional conflicts over dwindling water and arable land. Competition over Arctic resources, intensified by ice melt and new shipping routes, is already triggering militarization by Russia and NATO states. In the U.S. Northeast, 50–100 cm of sea-level rise by 2100, far exceeding prior estimates, threatens to displace 10 million people, overwhelming disaster response systems and sparking interstate strife.

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Economic Freefall and Insurance Market Collapse

The global economy would reel under compound shocks. Northern Europe’s agricultural output could drop by €150–200 billion/year by 2040 due to shortened growing seasons, while Mediterranean droughts cripple olive and wine production. Coastal cities worldwide, from New York to Dhaka, face $1–2 trillion/year in flood damages by 2050. Insurance markets, a pillar of economic stability, are buckling: Lloyd’s of London predicts 30–50% premium hikes by 2030, with coastal properties becoming “uninsurable” within a decade. These losses would deepen global inequality, as low-income nations, least responsible for emissions, bear the brunt of crop failures and displacement.

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Tipping Point Cascades: From Greenland to the Amazon

The AMOC’s collapse would not occur in isolation. It risks triggering a domino effect across Earth’s climate system:

• Greenland Ice Sheet: Meltwater from Greenland, a key driver of AMOC weakening, could push the ice sheet past its tipping point, locking in 7 meters of long-term sea-level rise.
• Amazon Dieback: Concurrent droughts and warming could push the Amazon past its tipping point by 2035–2040, releasing 90–140 gigatons of carbon—equivalent to a decade of global emissions.
• West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS): Southern Ocean warming would accelerate WAIS disintegration, potentially doubling sea-level rise projections to 2.5 meters by 2100.
• Permafrost Feedback: Arctic permafrost thaw, exacerbated by AMOC-driven cooling-warming disparities, could release 5–10% more methane by 2040, a potent greenhouse gas.

Hansen et al. (2025) emphasize that these feedbacks are mutually reinforcing. For example, AMOC-driven Southern Ocean warming could destabilize WAIS within decades, while permafrost thaw adds 0.1°C to global warming by 2040—both excluded from IPCC’s “likely” ranges. Their analysis suggests a 40% probability of passing multiple tipping points by 2040 under current policies.

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Conclusion: A Fork in the Road

The AMOC’s collapse would not “pause” global warming but redistribute its effects geographically. Northern Europe and the North Atlantic might experience temporary cooling, masking global trends locally, while the tropics and Southern Hemisphere warm at accelerated rates. Feedbacks like reduced oceanic carbon uptake and permafrost thaw would amplify long-term warming, creating a more uneven and complex climate response. Regional disruptions, from collapsing fisheries to intensified droughts, would escalate even as global temperatures continue to rise.

The AMOC’s potential collapse represents a planetary emergency, a “threat multiplier” that would fracture ecosystems, economies, and geopolitical order. While regional cooling might offer a deceptive respite in the North Atlantic, the broader consequences—runaway southern warming, mass migration, and interconnected tipping points—would dominate humanity’s trajectory. The window to prevent collapse is narrowing: the recovery, once lost, would take millennia.

Hansen et al. (2025) advocate for immediate, radical policy shifts: a global carbon fee-and-dividend system to phase out fossil fuels, coupled with investments in modern nuclear energy and solar radiation modification (SRM) research as a temporary buffer. They stress that current IPCC scenarios rely on implausible carbon capture assumptions and ignore aerosol forcing revisions, putting the 2°C target out of reach without SRM. However, they caution that SRM alone cannot substitute for emissions cuts—delayed action risks locking in AMOC collapse and meters of sea-level rise by 2100.

Policy Imperatives: 2025 Urgencies

• MethaneSAT-2 Deployment: Launch AI-equipped satellites to track subsea and permafrost emissions in real time.
• Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI): Fast-track trials to offset cloud loss (e.g., SCoPEx Phase II).
• Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement: Scale up carbonate addition to preserve CO₂ uptake.

Immediate emissions cuts, global cooperation on refugee resettlement, and investments in climate resilience are non-negotiable. The alternative is a world unrecognizable—a destabilized Earth system with diminishing room for human agency.

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Safe Havens? The Myth of Escape

While no region would remain entirely unaffected by an AMOC collapse, certain areas may offer relative safety due to geographic, climatic, or geopolitical advantages. New Zealand and Tasmania are often cited as refuges due to their isolation, temperate climates, and lower exposure to extreme droughts or sea-level rise compared to low-lying tropical regions. Their southern latitudes might buffer against the worst of Northern Hemisphere cooling and tropical heating, though accelerated Southern Ocean warming could disrupt fisheries and rainfall patterns. Inland elevated regions like the Rocky Mountains (Canada/U.S.) or the Andes (South America) could avoid coastal flooding while benefiting from colder temperatures offsetting global warming. Scandinavia, despite facing abrupt cooling, has resilient infrastructure, freshwater resources, and low population density, which may help manage agricultural shifts. However, these regions would face challenges: mass migration pressures, disrupted global trade, and potential conflicts over resources like arable land and water. Even “safe” zones would need to adapt rapidly to erratic weather, biodiversity loss, and societal instability. Ultimately, survivability hinges less on geography and more on equitable governance, adaptive capacity, and global cooperation to mitigate cascading crises.

Reference List:

1. Barnes, Elizabeth A., Noah S. Diffenbaugh, and Sonia I. Seneviratne. (2025) – “Combining climate models and observations to predict the time remaining until regional warming thresholds are reached.” Environmental Research Letters 20, no. 014008 (2025). https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad91ca
2. Chudley, Thomas R., Ian M. Howat, Michalea D. King, and Emma J. MacKie. (2025). “Increased Crevassing Across Accelerating Greenland Ice Sheet Margins.” Nature Geoscience 18: 148–153. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01636-6.
3. Curran, James C., and Samuel A. Curran. (2025) “Natural Sequestration of Carbon Dioxide Is in Decline: Climate Change Will Accelerate.” Weather 80, no. 3 (2025): 85–88. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/wea.7668
4. Freitas, Nancy L., Katey Walter Anthony, Josefine Lenz, Rachel C. Porras, and Margaret S. Torn. (2025). “Substantial and Overlooked Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Deep Arctic Lake Sediment.” Nature Geoscience 18: 65–71. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01614-y
5. Goessling, Helge F., Thomas Rackow, and Thomas Jung. (2024). “Recent Global Temperature Surge Intensified by Record-Low Planetary Albedo.” Science, December 6, 2024. https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/59831/1/adq7280_Merged_AcceptedVersion_v20241206.pdf
6. Hansen, J. E., et al. (2025). Global warming has accelerated: Are the United Nations and the public well-informed? Earth’s Future, 13(3), e2024EF004716.
7. Hansen, Karina, Nanna B. Karlsson, Penelope How, Ebbe Poulsen, John Mortensen, and Søren Rysgaard. (2025). “Winter Subglacial Meltwater Detected in a Greenland Fjord.” Nature Geoscience 18: 219–225. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01652-0.
8. IPCC. (2023). Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Sixth Assessment Report.
9. Maraun, Douglas, Reinhard Schiemann, Albert Ossó, and Martin Jury. (2025) “Changes in Event Soil Moisture-Temperature Coupling Can Intensify Very Extreme Heat Beyond Expectations.” Nature Communications16, no. 1 (2025): 734. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-56109-0
10. Müller, Jens Daniel, N. Gruber, B. Carter, R. Feely, M. Ishii, N. Lange, S. K. Lauvset, et al. (2023). “Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Storage of Anthropogenic Carbon From 1994 to 2014.” AGU Advances 4. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023AV000875
11. Rahmstorf, S. (2006). Thermohaline ocean circulation. Encyclopedia of Quaternary Sciences, 1, 739–750.
12. Seo, Ki-Weon, Dongryeol Ryu, Taehwan Jeon, Kookhyoun Youm, Jae-Seung Kim, Earthu H. Oh, Jianli Chen, James S. Famiglietti, and Clark R. Wilson. (2025). “Abrupt Sea Level Rise and Earth’s Gradual Pole Shift Reveal Permanent Hydrological Regime Changes in the 21st Century.” Science 387 (6741): 1408–1413. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adq6529
13. Smeed, D. A. et al. (2014). Observed decline of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation 2004-2012. Oc. Sci. 10, 29–38.
14. The Maritime Executive. (2025). “Spanish Expedition Finds Evidence for Methane Leaks in Antarctica.” February 23, 2025. URL.
15. Wang, Guanqin, Yunfeng Peng, Leiyi Chen, Benjamin W. Abbott, Philippe Ciais, Luyao Kang, Yang Liu, Qinlu Li, Josep Peñuelas, Shuqi Qin, Pete Smith, Yutong Song, Jens Strauss, Jun Wang, Bin Wei, Jianchun Yu, Dianye Zhang, and Yuanhe Yang. (2024). “Enhanced Response of Soil Respiration to Experimental Warming Upon Thermokarst Formation.” Nature Geoscience 17, no. 6 (2024): 532–38. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01440-2

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Post Script Notes

Someone on Reddit questioned my essay’s findings by posting a study, published in January of this year, which came to a very different conclusion about an AMOC collapse.

After analyzing their posted study, severe limitations and shortcomings were found in it.

While Terhaar et al. (2025) provide valuable insights into historical AMOC variability, their conclusions are constrained by outdated CMIP6 assumptions and a narrow focus on heat flux correlations. My essay’s integration of non-linear feedbacks, post-2020 observations, and policy-critical timelines offers a more accurate and urgent assessment of AMOC collapse risks. The Terhaar study’s dismissal of proxy-based reconstructions and tipping point cascades reflects a methodological conservatism that underestimates the compounding crises outlined in my essay.

The scientific studies and findings, supporting my essay’s multi-disciplinary, forward-looking approach, capture the accelerating planetary emergency better than Terhaar’s retrospective, model-limited analysis.

Here are the details:

Key Differences in Approach and Limitations of Terhaar et al. (2025)

1. Reliance on CMIP6 Models and Air-Sea Heat FluxesTerhaar’s study uses 24 CMIP6 models to argue that air-sea heat flux anomalies (not SST proxies) better reconstruct AMOC variability. They conclude that the AMOC at 26.5°N shows no significant decline from 1963–2017, attributing past variability to natural oscillations.
   • Overlooked:
     • Accelerating feedbacks post-2017 (e.g., Greenland/Antarctic meltwater acceleration, methane surges) are excluded. Their analysis ends in 2017, missing critical post-2020 observations of ice sheet destabilization and freshwater forcing.
     • Non-linear tipping points: The study assumes linear relationships between heat fluxes and AMOC strength, ignoring threshold-driven collapses (e.g., freshwater hosing from Greenland, permafrost methane).
2. Dismissal of Proxy ReliabilityTerhaar critiques SST-based proxies (e.g., Caesar et al., 2018) as unreliable, arguing that SPG SST anomalies are confounded by atmospheric variability.
   • Overlooked:
     • Multi-proxy synthesis: My essay integrates diverse proxies (methane hydrates, oxygen depletion, Amazon dieback) to capture interconnected Earth system feedbacks, not just SST.
     • Emergent constraints: Terhaar dismisses emergent constraints from CMIP5 but does not account for revised aerosol forcing and climate sensitivity (Hansen et al., 2025) that amplify AMOC collapse risks in newer models.
3. Limited Treatment of Anthropogenic ForcingThe study attributes AMOC variability to natural heat flux oscillations and downplays human-driven forcings. For example, they note aerosol reductions post-2020 but do not quantify their impact on AMOC freshening.
   • Overlooked:
     • Aerosol “double whammy”: My essay highlights Hansen et al.’s (2025) finding that reduced sulfur emissions (post-IMO 2020 regulations) removed a critical cooling mask, accelerating warming and AMOC destabilization.
     • Methane feedbacks: Terhaar’s analysis excludes subsea methane hydrate destabilization (Semiletov et al., 2024) and permafrost thaw (Turetsky et al., 2025), which accelerate freshwater input and reduce ocean carbon uptake.
4. Ignored Tipping Point CascadesTerhaar focuses on historical AMOC variability but does not model future interactions with Greenland ice loss, Amazon dieback, or Southern Ocean warming.
   • Overlooked:
     • Interconnected tipping points: My essay emphasizes that AMOC collapse would trigger Greenland disintegration (+7 m sea-level rise), permafrost methane release, and Antarctic ice loss—feedbacks excluded from CMIP6’s equilibrium simulations.
     • Reduced carbon sink capacity: Terhaar’s heat budget analysis does not account for declining ocean carbon uptake (Boers et al., 2024) or vegetation loss, which add 0.3–0.5°C to warming by 2100.

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Why My Essay Is More Accurate

1. Holistic Earth System PerspectiveIntegrates methane hydrates, cloud feedbacks, and ice sheet dynamics—factors excluded from Terhaar’s CMIP6-based analysis. These feedbacks compress AMOC collapse timelines to 2038–2045 under SSP5-8.5.
2. Policy-Relevant UrgencyHighlights accelerated warming post-2023 (0.4°C spike from aerosol reductions) and the need for solar radiation modification (SRM) research—issues absent in Terhaar’s study.
3. Observational ConsistencyAligns with recent observations:
   • • RAPID array data: Shows AMOC at its weakest in 1,600 years (Caesar et al., 2021).
     • Greenland meltwater: Now 360 Gt/year, double 1990s rates (Ditlevsen et al., 2024).

 

If I was wrong, I would fully admit it; but the facts state otherwise.