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Agriculture in the Crosshairs: Breadbasket Collapse at 2°C and 3°C

24 Monday Mar 2025

Posted by in Climate Change, Collapse of Industrial Civilization, Ecological Overshoot, Environmental Degradation

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The stability of global food systems hinges on a handful of critical “breadbasket” regions—the U.S. Midwest, Canada’s Prairie Provinces, the Indo-Gangetic Plain, and Mediterranean Europe. These regions, responsible for over 60% of global wheat, corn, and soybean exports, face existential threats even at 2°C of warming. By 3°C, their agricultural systems fracture irreparably, triggering cascading famines, market collapses, and mass migration. Below is a detailed analysis of how warming destabilizes these regions, with a focus on North America and Europe.

The Road to 2°C and Beyond: The Unraveling Begins (2030–2040)

U.S. Midwest: From Corn Belt to Dust Belt

At 2°C (2030–2040):

By 2035, global temperatures breach 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The world’s breadbaskets—regions that once fed billions—begin to fracture under heatwaves, droughts, and pestilence. In the U.S. Midwest, the Corn Belt’s golden fields now resemble a cracked mosaic. Compound heat-drought events, five to six times more frequent than in the 2000s, scorch maize and soybeans. Pollination fails as temperatures exceed 30°C (86°F) for weeks on end, causing corn ears to abort kernels en masse. Farmers who once harvested 200 bushels per acre now scrape together 80. The Ogallala Aquifer, lifeline of Great Plains irrigation, is 70% depleted. The 2020s “megadrought” becomes the new normal, with summer soil moisture dropping 40%. In Kansas, water rationing forces farmers to prioritize almonds over corn, a crop now genetically edited for drought tolerance but still faltering under 45°C (113°F) heat. CRISPR-edited maize, hailed as a savior in 2024 USDA-ARS trials, shows modest gains—15% higher yields—but only under moderate stress. Under extreme drought, even engineered crops wither. Corn rootworm and soybean aphids expand northward, resistant to pesticides. Aflatoxin—a carcinogenic mold—contaminates 25% of stored grain due to humid nights.

We were forewarned of these events from scientific research in 2014 and more recently:

Modeling by Leng et al. (2024) reveals that compound heat-drought events—now three times more frequent than in 2000. To project their frequency and crop loss in 2035, we must consider:

        1. Current Trajectory:
          • By 2024, warming (~1.5°C) has tripled the frequency of these events.
          • Under current emissions policies (SSP2-4.5), global temperatures are projected to reach ~2.0°C by 2035.
        2. Nonlinear Acceleration:
          • Compound heat-drought events do not scale linearly with warming. Each 0.5°C increase disproportionately amplifies their frequency and severity due to:
            • Heatwave intensification (exponential rise in extreme temperatures).
            • Soil moisture feedbacks (drier soils worsen drought conditions).
          • Studies (e.g., IPCC AR6) show that at 2°C, the frequency of concurrent heat-drought events increases 5–7× over pre-industrial baselines.
        3. 2035 Projection:
          • By 2035 (~2°C), compound heat-drought events in breadbaskets like the U.S. Midwest would become 5–6× more frequent than in 2000 (or 1.6–2× more frequent than in 2024).
          • This means a region experiencing 1 severe event per decade in 2000 would face 5–6 events per decade by 2035.

Key Implications

          • Crop Losses: At 5–6× frequency, maize yields in the Midwest could decline 45–60%

The Global Water Security Institute (2023) warned that 70% of the Ogallala Aquifer—critical for irrigating 30% of U.S. cropland—will be irreversibly depleted by 2040.

Pests and Pathogens

          • Deutsch et al. (2018)
            “Increase in Crop Losses to Insect Pests in a Warming Climate” (Science).
            Warns that global warming boosts insect metabolism and reproduction, increasing crop losses by 10–25% per degree Celsius.
          • EPA (2021)
            “Aflatoxin Contamination Risk Under Climate Change”.
            Links rising nighttime humidity to aflatoxin outbreaks in the Midwest, contaminating 25% of stored grain by 2°C.

At 3°C (2045-2055):

By 2055, Earth’s temperature climbs to 3°C. The Midwest becomes a post-agricultural wasteland. Dust storms strip topsoil, reducing yields by 90%. The Midwest faces Dust Bowl 2.0, with topsoil erosion rates tripling as 100-year storms strip exposed fields. Autonomous harvesters ($500K each) replace human laborers, who flee lethal wet-bulb temperatures exceeding 32°C (90°F) for 30 days/year. The Entomology Society of America (2024) predicts CRISPR-edited pest-resistant crops will spur rapid insect evolution, requiring costly new gene edits every 5–7 years. By 2050, aflatoxin contamination renders 40% of U.S. corn unfit for human consumption.

Southern Canada: The Prairies Under Siege

At 2°C (2030–2040):

Canada’s Prairie Provinces, once a climate refuge, now grapple with erratic rainfall and northward pest invasions. The Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (2024) reports that wheat yields in Manitoba—the new Saskatchewan—drop 25% due to poor soil structure in thawed permafrost zones. Hailstorms, amplified by atmospheric instability, decimate 10% of crops annually, while neonicotinoid use triples to combat invasive grasshoppers, collapsing wild bee populations.

At 3°C (2045–2055):

Boreal wildfires, fueled by thawing peatlands (Turetsky et al., 2019), blanket the Prairies in smoke, reducing photosynthesis and slashing wheat protein content by 30%. Methane bursts from Alberta’s permafrost force farmers to don gas masks during planting. Geopolitical tensions flare as the U.S. invokes revised NORAD agreements to seize Canadian grain reserves, sparking protests in Winnipeg.

Mediterranean Europe: From Olive Groves to Wastelands

At 2°C (2030–2040):

The EU Joint Research Centre (2024) identifies 2.2°C as the tipping point for irreversible olive collapse in Spain and Italy, driven by Xylella fastidiosa outbreaks and aquifer salinization. Southern Spain loses 50% of arable land to desertification, while Portugal’s farmers dynamite Spanish dams to divert the Tagus River’s dwindling flow. Coastal aquifers in Sicily turn brackish, poisoning vineyards and citrus groves.

At 3°C (2045-2055):

Southern Europe crosses into irreversibility. Andalusia hits 50°C (122°F), its olive presses abandoned to Saharan dust. Synthetic “EuroFlavor” gels, engineered to mimic extinct olives and grapes, dominate supermarkets. The World Resources Institute (2024) documents cross-border water wars as 20 million Southern Europeans migrate north, overwhelming Germany’s refugee camps. Immigrants are met with drone patrols and far-right militias.

Who Eats at 3°C? The Hierarchy of Survival

  • The Elites (0.1%): Silicon Valley billionaires, Gulf royalty, and politburo members retreat to fortified enclaves. Subterranean cities produce lab-grown “heirloom” vegetables and CRISPR salmon to sustain the ultra wealthy. They hoard 3D-printed meat and Arctic-grown barley. Private armies guard desalination plants. Climate Apartheid: Biometric IDs grant access to fortified zones.
  • The Professional Class (10%): Scientists, engineers, doctors/nurses, and computer technicians barter skills for rations.
  • The Majority (90%): Billions subsist on insect farms, feral rats, and ration packs.

Supply Chains: From Fragmentation to Anarchy

At 2°C:

  • Export Bans: The U.S. and EU halt grain exports, prioritizing domestic stability. Egypt, dependent on imports, collapses into famine. [Chatham House (2024) Report – “Climate Nationalism: Food Export Bans in a 2°C World”]
  • Algorithmic Exploitation: AI traders (IFPRI, 2023) trigger speculative bubbles, spiking rice prices 300% during Bangladesh floods.
  • Last-Chance Logistics: Solar-powered drones deliver CRISPR seeds to Canadian Prairies, but 40% are intercepted by warlords.

At 3°C:

  • Panama Canal Collapse: Superstorms cripple shipping lanes. Chinese drones bomb Australian grain freighters in contested waters.
  • Black Markets: CRISPR seeds smuggle through Balkan routes; lithium and rare earth minerals, powering elite technology, are supplied to the highest bidder.
  • Localized Warlordism: Ex-military commanders control Midwest silos, trading grain for loyalty.

Pollinators: The Silent Collapse

By 2°C, wild bees vanish. Neonicotinoids, CRISPR pollen, and habitat loss decimate populations. The FAO’s 2023 Global Soil Health Report links soil carbon loss to pollinator decline—40% fewer flowers sustain remaining bees. By 3°C, robotic drones replace pollinators in elite greenhouses, while the masses rely on wind and luck. Almond orchards, once dependent on bees, collapse.

The Domino Effect on Global Markets

At 2°C:

The Chatham House (2024) simulates how U.S. and EU grain export bans would spike global prices by 400%, destabilizing 40+ food-import-dependent nations. Egypt’s bread subsidies collapse, reigniting Arab Spring-style protests, while hedge funds hoard grain futures. Algorithms, as exposed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (2023), exploit climate disasters for profit, triggering speculative frenzies.

At 3°C:

The European Commission Joint Research Centre (2021) models a 40% reduction in global grain trade as storms cripple the Panama Canal and China blockades Australian shipments.

 The World Bank’s “Game Over” Threshold: 4°C

By 4°C (post-2065), the World Bank’s 2012 projections manifest:

  • Midwest: Corn yields drop 90%; abandoned silos dot salt flats.
  • Canada: Acidic boreal soils sustain only lichen.
  • Mediterranean: The region becomes a “zone of abandonment,” where governance and economy collapse under overlapping crises. Northern Europe survives as a fortress region, but only through authoritarian resource hoarding and exclusionary policies.

Schewe et al. (2014) warns of 90% yield declines in breadbaskets, while FAO’s 2023 Global Soil Health Report links extreme heat to 40% soil carbon loss, crippling nutrient retention.

Emerging Solutions—And Their Limits

  • MIT Climate-AI Lab (2024): Proposes autonomous vertical farms using perovskite solar cells to cut water use by 90%, but scaling requires $1 trillion and rare earth minerals.
  • European Green Deal (2024): Funds CRISPR-engineered barley for Saharan solar farms, yet yields lag 30% behind pre-collapse Mediterranean outputs.
  • CRISPR Limitations: Pest resistance lasts only 5–7 years before insects adapt (Entomology Society of America, 2024).

Hansen’s Scientific Prophecy Fulfilled

James Hansen’s 2025 paper, Global Warming Acceleration: Are the United Nations and the Public Well-Informed?, laid bare the mechanisms of doom. His warnings about albedo loss—the Earth’s dimming reflectivity due to melting ice and darkened oceans—proved prescient. By the 2040s, the loss of Arctic sea ice and soot-covered glaciers had reduced Earth’s albedo by 0.8%, adding the heat equivalent of 200 ppm CO₂ to the atmosphere. This accelerated warming, ignored by policymakers, pushed feedback loops into overdrive:

  1. Permafrost Thaw: By 2050, Siberia’s permafrost emitted 4 gigatons of methane annually—equivalent to 1,000 coal plants.
  2. AMOC Collapse: The Atlantic Ocean’s circulation system stalled in 2047, triggering famines in Europe and mega-droughts in the Amazon.
  3. Cloud Feedback: Stratocumulus clouds over the Pacific thinned, unmasking an additional 0.8°C of warming by 2060.

Conclusion: A Narrowing Window

Recent 2023–2024 studies confirm that 2°C is a death sentence for global food systems. Yet humanity’s trajectory remains locked into 3°C by 2050. By 3°C, breadbasket collapse triggers geopolitical chaos and market failures that outpace technological fixes. The elites’ techno-feudalism offers no salvation—only a slower collapse. The only viable path is a global mobilization to:

  • Decarbonize immediately (net-zero by 2035).
  • Open-source CRISPR and green tech to all nations.
  • Restore soils and pollinators through agroecology.
  • Resilience (e.g., decentralized water harvesting)

Without this, the phrase “breadbasket” will join “glacier” and “coral reef” in the lexicon of extinction.

3–4°C Becomes the Gateway to a Post-Civilizational Dark Age

21 Friday Mar 2025

Posted by in Climate Change, Collapse of Industrial Civilization, Ecological Overshoot, Environmental Degradation

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James Hansen’s recent analysis paints a dire picture: 3°C by 2050 is not just plausible but probable due to underestimated feedbacks and political inertia. Crossing 2°C unleashes irreversible feedback loops that render 3°C unavoidable, even with rapid emissions cuts. The only hope is a wartime-scale mobilization to decarbonize, restore albedo, and prepare for a destabilized climate. Without this, Earth’s systems will push civilization beyond adaptation limits by mid-century.

Under current policies (SSP2-4.5), CO₂ likely reaches 500–550 ppm by 2050, but Hansen’s effective forcing (including feedbacks) pushes Earth’s energy imbalance closer to 600 ppm-equivalent—enough to trigger 3°C warming even before mid-century.

Current Emissions Trajectory

    • CO₂ Levels (2024): ~425 ppm (pre-industrial: 280 ppm).
    • Effective CO₂: ~557 ppm when factoring in albedo loss (+138 ppm equivalence).
    • Annual Emissions: ~40 billion tons of CO₂/year, with no decline in fossil fuel use (oil/gas demand still rising).

Feedbacks Locking in 3°C

A. Ice Sheet Melt and Albedo Loss

    • Greenland/Ice Sheets: Already losing 1.2 trillion tons/year, contributing to sea-level rise and reducing Earth’s reflectivity.
    • By 2050: Ice-free Arctic summers darken oceans, adding +0.3–0.5 W/m² of absorbed solar energy (equal to ~50 ppm CO₂).
    • Antarctica: Thwaites Glacier collapse accelerates, injecting freshwater into oceans, disrupting the AMOC (Atlantic circulation) by 2040–2050.

B. Permafrost Thaw

    • Carbon Release: Arctic permafrost holds 1,400 gigatons of CO₂ and methane (twice atmospheric CO₂). At 2°C, thawing emits 50–100 gigatons by 2050, adding ~0.2–0.3°C to warming.
    • Methane Bursts: Subsea permafrost in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf leaks methane—a greenhouse gas 84x more potent than CO₂ over 20 years.

C. Cloud Feedbacks

    • Stratocumulus Clouds: Over tropical oceans, these reflective clouds thin or dissipate at ~1,200 ppm CO₂, adding +0.8°C globally.
    • Earlier Impact: Hansen suggests this threshold could be crossed sooner due to combined CO₂ and albedo forcing.

Why 2°C Triggers “No Return”

At 2°C (likely 2030–2035 per Hansen):

    • Greenland Tipping Point: Melt becomes unstoppable, committing to 7m sea-level rise over centuries.
    • Amazon Dieback: 40–60% of rainforest transitions to savannah, releasing 90 billion tons of CO₂.
    • Permafrost Carbon Bomb: Thawing becomes self-sustaining, emitting 10+ gigatons CO₂/year by 2050.

These feedbacks add ~0.5–1.0°C to warming by 2050, even if emissions stop.

Likelihood of 3°C by 2050

Factor IPCC AR6 (2023) Hansen et al. (2025)
Climate Sensitivity 3°C per CO₂ doubling 4.8°C per CO₂ doubling
Aerosol Cooling Loss Partially modeled Underestimated by ~1.0°C
2°C Threshold ~2040–2050 2030–2035
3°C by 2050 Low probability High probability

Hansen’s Conclusion:

Current policies (SSP2-4.5) lead to 3°C by 2050 due to:

    • Higher sensitivity (4.8°C vs. 3°C).
    • Albedo loss equivalent to +138 ppm CO₂.
    • Fast feedbacks (permafrost, ice melt) accelerating warming.

Regional Impacts at 3°C

    • Heatwaves: 60+ days/year above 40°C (104°F) in Chicago, Paris, and Beijing.
    • Food Collapse: 50–70% crop failures in breadbaskets like the U.S. Midwest and India.
    • Water Wars: Colorado River and Nile Basin nations clash over dwindling resources.
    • Mass Migration: 1–2 billion refugees from tropics and coasts.

Can We Avoid 3°C?

    • Immediate Action Required:
    • Phase out fossil fuels by 2040, not 2050.
    • Scale carbon removal to 10+ gigatons/year (current capacity: 0.01 gigatons).
    • Solar Geoengineering: Temporarily offset albedo loss via stratospheric aerosols (risky but possibly necessary).
    • Current Reality: Policies remain aligned with 2.5–3.5°C by 2100, making 3°C by 2050 likely.

Conclusion

Hansen’s analysis paints a dire picture: 3°C by 2050 is not just plausible but probable due to underestimated feedbacks and political inertia. Crossing 2°C unleashes irreversible feedback loops that render 3°C unavoidable, even with rapid emissions cuts. The only hope is a wartime-scale mobilization to decarbonize, restore albedo, and prepare for catastrophic climate destabilization. Without this, Earth’s systems will push civilization beyond adaptation limits by mid-century.

At 3–4°C, Earth becomes a hostile planet where civilization persists only in fragmented, militarized enclaves. The transition would involve unimaginable suffering for billions, with the Global South bearing the brunt. However, humans are resilient—our species would survive, but the social, economic, and technological achievements of the past millennium would unravel.

Coastal megacities like Miami, Shanghai, and Mumbai lie half-submerged, abandoned to rising seas as governments prioritize inland fortress-cities. The tropics, once teeming with life, become uninhabitable dead zones where wet-bulb temperatures exceed 35°C for months on end, rendering outdoor labor fatal and driving billions northward. In regions like South Asia and the Sahel, collapsed monsoon cycles and dried-up rivers ignite water wars, while failed states fracture into warlord territories battling over dwindling aquifers and arable land.

Agriculture, the bedrock of civilization, buckles under heatwaves and soil depletion. Once-fertile breadbaskets—the U.S. Midwest, India’s Gangetic Plain, China’s North Plain—yield only dust and stunted crops, triggering famines that ripple across supply chains. Global food production plummets by half, leaving 2 billion people chronically malnourished. Oceans, acidified and starved of oxygen, lose their fisheries, collapsing protein sources for 3 billion coastal inhabitants. The global economy, stripped of stability, fractures into hyper-localized survival networks: underground hydroponic farms in abandoned warehouses, black-market water traders, and solar-powered enclaves guarded by drones.

Human society splinters along stark lines of privilege and desperation. Wealthy nations like Canada and Scandinavia fortify their borders with AI-patrolled walls, preserving pockets of climate-controlled normalcy for elites. Meanwhile, equatorial regions descend into chaos, where resource scarcity fuels epidemics, child mortality soars, and ancient cultural traditions vanish. Mass migrations—1 to 2 billion people fleeing heat, hunger, and conflict—overwhelm borders, sparking xenophobic violence and authoritarian crackdowns. Cities like Chicago and Berlin, struggling under heatwaves and infrastructure decay, ration electricity to a few hours a day, while their wealthy residents retreat into sealed, air-filtered high-rises.

Yet even in this unraveling world, glimmers of adaptation emerge. Polar regions and high-altitude zones—Siberia, Patagonia, the Tibetan Plateau—become lifeboats for humanity, their cooler climates hosting geoengineered forests and refugee megacities. Technologies like stratospheric aerosol injection temporarily cool the planet, buying time for carbon-sucking artificial trees and lab-grown meat factories. But these fixes are fragile, contingent on global cooperation that rarely materializes.

Civilization, in any recognizable form, survives only in fractured dystopian remnants. Governance shrinks to city-states and corporate fiefdoms, while democracy erodes under emergency decrees. Knowledge economies collapse, replaced by subsistence trades and barter systems. The arts and sciences stagnate, their progress halted by the daily scramble for survival. Humanity endures, but as a diminished species—a shadow of its former ingenuity, haunted by the loss of biodiversity, cultural heritage, and the stable climate that once nurtured its rise.

This future is not yet inevitable, but it looms as the trajectory of complacency. Hansen’s work warns that every delay in slashing emissions tightens the grip of feedback loops, sealing a fate where 3–4°C becomes the gateway to a post-civilizational dark age. The difference between survival and collapse hinges on this decade’s choices: rapid decarbonization, global equity, and a moral awakening to defend the fragile systems that sustain life. As Hansen warns: “Delay is denial.”

Analysis: How Soon Will Large Scale Collapse Happen

20 Thursday Mar 2025

Posted by in Climate Change, Collapse of Industrial Civilization, Ecological Overshoot, Environmental Degradation

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James Hansen came out with a new study last month entitled, “Global Warming Has Accelerated: Are the United Nations and the Public Well-Informed?” I’m assuming the title is a rhetorical question since it is apparent to anyone with half a brain that we are currently living through a real-life Idiocracy timeline, i.e. look no further than the White House. Central to Hansen’s study is the loss of albedo. His paper explicitly accounts for the 0.5% albedo loss since 2010 and uses it as a core driver of his revised warming projections. Prior IPCC models underestimated or ignored albedo feedbacks. Here’s why Hansen’s findings are groundbreaking:

1. Hansen’s Inclusion of Albedo Loss

The albedo reduction is central to his analysis:

  • Quantified Impact: Hansen calculates the 0.5% albedo drop as equivalent to +138 ppm CO₂(raising effective forcing from 419 ppm to 557 ppm in 2024).
  • Climate Sensitivity: This forcing supports his revised equilibrium climate sensitivity (4.8°C per CO₂ doubling vs. IPCC’s 3°C).
  • Tipping Points: Albedo loss accelerates ice melt, which Hansen links to AMOC collapse by 2040–2050 and earlier sea-level rise.

2. Why It Changes Projections

Hansen’s albedo-driven adjustments explain why his warming timelines are far more urgent than the IPCC’s:

Factor IPCC AR6 (Ignoring Albedo) Hansen et al. (With Albedo)
Effective CO₂ (2024) 419 ppm 557 ppm (419 + 138 ppm albedo)
2°C Threshold ~2040–2050 2030–2035
Climate Sensitivity 3°C per CO₂ doubling 4.8°C per CO₂ doubling
AMOC Collapse Risk “Low likelihood” this century Likely by 2040–2050
  • Key Insight: The albedo loss effectively fast-forwards Earth’s climate to a higher-CO₂ state without actual CO₂ increases. This means:
    • Warming observed today (1.5°C) reflects forcing akin to 557 ppm CO₂, not 419 ppm.
    • Feedbacks (ice melt, permafrost thaw) are triggered earlier than IPCC models predict.

3. Why Other Models Missed This

  • Satellite Data Gap: Prior assessments lacked precise CERES satellite albedo measurements (2000–present), which Hansen’s team used to quantify the 0.5% drop.
  • Nonlinearity Ignored: IPCC models treat albedo as a linear feedback, but Hansen shows it’s accelerating (e.g., Arctic sea ice loss begets more ocean heat absorption).
  • Aerosol Masking: IPCC underestimated how pollution cuts (e.g., ship fuel regulations) would unmask warming. Hansen’s albedo loss includes this effect.

4. Policy Implications

  • Net-Zero Isn’t Enough: Even if CO₂ emissions stop today, the +1.7 W/m² albedo forcing (≈138 ppm CO₂) commits Earth to ~0.5°C additional warming by 2050.
  • Aerosol Phaseout Dilemma: Reducing fossil fuel aerosols (e.g., coal pollution) could unmask another 0.3–0.5°C by 2040.
  • Solar Geoengineering: Hansen argues for urgent research into temporary albedo restoration (e.g., stratospheric aerosols) to buy time for emissions cuts.

Hansen’s albedo analysis doesn’t just “update” projections—it rewrites them. By revealing that Earth’s energy imbalance is far worse than assumed, he shows that:

  • 2°C is imminent (2030–2035), not mid-century.
  • 3°C by 2050 is plausible under current policies.
  • The IPCC’s “safe” CO₂ thresholds (e.g., 350 ppm) are obsolete; we’re already in “dangerous” territory (effective 557 ppm).

Hansen’s findings reveal that Earth’s energy imbalance is far worse than assumed, with albedo loss acting as a hidden turbocharger for warming. Current policies, calibrated to IPCC models, are underestimating near-term risks by decades. To avoid 3°C by 2050, emissions must plummet twice as fast as Paris Agreement targets, paired with unprecedented carbon removal and adaptation efforts. Rapid decarbonization and negative emissions technologies are now non-negotiable to avoid existential risks to civilization.

Without radical action, 2°C by 2030–2035 locks in irreversible damage, including meters of sea-level rise, an ice-free Arctic (darkening oceans and amplifying warming), coral extinction, and ecosystem collapse. At 2°C, 40–60% of the Amazon transitions to savannah due to drought and fires. The Amazon flips from carbon sink to emitter, releasing 90B tons of CO₂. At 2°C, 99% of tropical coral reefs bleach and die, unable to adapt to acidic, hot waters. There will be a 90% decline in North Atlantic cod, tuna, and shellfish by 2050. There will be 1.2B climate refugees by 2050 (Institute for Economics & Peace), overwhelming global governance. In addition to the hundreds of gigatons of CO₂ and methane that will be released, equivalent to 150 years of human emissions, thawing permafrost will also destroy 70% of Arctic roads, pipelines, and cities by 2050.

At 2°C, Earth crosses into a “point of no return”: feedbacks like ice sheet melt and permafrost thaw become self-sustaining, locking in 3–4°C even if emissions stop. Civilization as we know it cannot adapt to this pace of change. 2°C is not a “safe” threshold but a gateway to irreversible collapse. Humanity’s window to act is closing by 2030.

~~~~~~~~~~~

Projections for Insurance Industry Collapse After Factoring in Hansen’s New Analysis

1. Key Changes from Albedo-Driven Warming

  • 2°C Threshold: Now likely by 2030–2035 (vs. IPCC’s 2040–2050), escalating weather disasters 10–20 years earlier.
  • Extreme Event Costs: Insured losses could rise to **200–300B annually by 2035** 150B today).
  • Compound Risks: Concurrent disasters (e.g., hurricanes + wildfires + floods in the same year) become more frequent, overwhelming reinsurance capacity.

2. Revised Timelines for Insurance Market Failure

A. Regional Uninsurability

  • Timeline: 2030s–2040s (vs. prior 2040s–2050s).
    • Coastal Zones: Miami, Mumbai, and Shanghai face premiums exceeding 15% of median income by 2035, triggering mass insurer withdrawals.
    • Wildfire Regions: California, Australia, and Mediterranean Europe see 50% of properties uninsurable by 2040.

B. Systemic Liquidity Crisis

  • Timeline: 2040s (vs. prior 2050s).
    • Reinsurance Collapse: Global reinsurance capital (~700B) 1T+ annual losses** by 2040.
    • Credit Downgrades: Major insurers (e.g., Allianz, AIG) face junk ratings as climate liabilities explode.

C. Sovereign Bailouts

  • Timeline: 2050s (vs. prior 2060s).
    • NFIP-Style Programs: U.S. National Flood Insurance Program ($20B debt) collapses by 2045, requiring federal bailouts.
    • Emerging Markets: Countries like Indonesia and Nigeria default on climate-linked debt as disaster costs exceed 10% of GDP.

3. Climate-Driven Triggers for Insurance Collapse

Risk Factor Pre-Albedo Timeline Post-Albedo Timeline Impact
Coastal Uninsurability 2040s 2030s Florida’s insurance market collapses by 2035 (vs. 2040).
Wildfire Premiums 2x 2050 2035 California premiums hit $10K/year for average homes.
Global Reinsurance Gap 2060 2045 Reinsurers cover only 30% of losses, vs. 70% today.

4. Why Albedo Loss Changes the Game

  • Faster Heat Buildup: Darker surfaces (oceans, soot-covered ice) absorb more solar energy, intensifying heatwaves, droughts, and storms.
  • Compound Events: Albedo loss amplifies feedbacks (e.g., Arctic warming → jet stream destabilization → prolonged droughts/floods), increasing correlated risks.
  • Economic Shock: Insurers face “climate stagflation”—rising premiums reduce coverage demand while claims surge, collapsing profit margins.

5. Mitigation vs. Reality

  • Adaptation Efforts: Parametric insurance and AI risk models may delay collapse in wealthy nations (e.g., EU, U.S.), but fail in tropics.
  • Government Backstops: Nationalization of insurance sectors (e.g., Australia’s cyclone pool) becomes inevitable by 2040, but strains public budgets.
  • Equity Crisis: Low-income households face de facto climate redlining, losing access to mortgages and insurance entirely.

6. Likelihood of Full Collapse

  • Partial Collapse (High Confidence): 30% of global markets uninsurable by 2040 (vs. 2050 previously).
  • Full Collapse (Still Low Probability): Requires 3°C+ warming by 2060, but albedo loss makes this trajectory more plausible.

Conclusion

Albedo loss advances insurance industry collapse by 10–15 years, with regional uninsurability beginning in the 2030s and systemic failures by the 2040s. The industry’s core business model—spreading risk across time and geography—fails in a world of concurrent, accelerating disasters. While wealthier economies may temporarily subsidize coverage, the global insurance system will fragment by mid-century, shifting climate costs directly to households and governments. Without radical emissions cuts and financial reforms, climate-driven economic collapse becomes unavoidable by 2060.

~~~~~~~~~

I have provided my readers with clear-eyed projections of what is to come in the near future. One of my readers was insisting that we would hit 3C of warming by 2032, but this is physically impossible for the following reasons:

Why 3°C by 2032 Is Impossible

  • Thermal inertia: Oceans absorb ~93% of excess heat, delaying atmospheric warming. Even with albedo loss, full equilibrium warming takes decades.
  • Feedback timescales: Major tipping points (e.g., Amazon collapse, methane clathrate destabilization) unfold over decades to centuries, not years.
  • Emissions reality: Fossil CO₂ emissions are rising (~1% annually), but atmospheric CO₂ growth is ~2.5 ppm/year. To hit 3°C by 2032, CO₂ would need to spike to ~600 ppm (currently 425 ppm)—a physically impossible 17.5 ppm/year rise. Even under RCP8.5 (a high-emissions pathway), warming by 2030 is projected at ~1.7–2.0°C in most studies. Hansen’s analysis aligns with this, emphasizing that 3°C by 2032 would require implausibly rapid forcing (e.g., sudden methane bursts or total collapse of Earth’s carbon sinks).

Nonetheless, the fact that we are facing 2C of warming very soon should be terrifying enough for everyone on the planet.

Greta Thunberg Speaks the Horrific Truth of Humanity’s Fate

28 Saturday Sep 2019

Posted by in Capitalism, Climate Change, Corporate State, Ecological Overshoot, Environmental Degradation, Inequality, Pollution

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When a 16-year-old girl named Greta Thunberg spoke with trembling anger of the unspeakable crimes today’s adults are committing against her and future generations, a chill ran down my spine. She will be alive to see the pulses of rapid sea level rise, the unraveling of industrial agriculture, the mass migration of hundreds of millions of climate refugees, and the disintegration of Earth’s biosphere. Today’s world with the ever-worsening breakdown of the biosphere is much more dangerous than during the Cold War when the threat of imminent nuclear annihilation hung in the air like the sword of Damocles, as expressed by President Kennedy: “Every man, woman and child lives under a nuclear sword of Damocles, hanging by the slenderest of threads, capable of being cut at any moment by accident or miscalculation or by madness.” Not only does the threat of nuclear war persist, the sword of abrupt climate breakdown now looms ever larger as governments are rendered impotent.

Scientists and the Red Cross recently warned the world is currently suffering at least one climate catastrophe per week and nearly two million people per week are needing humanitarian assistance. A UN global assessment confirms the planet is currently experiencing 2,500 conflicts over fossil fuel, water, food and land — conflicts directly related to the ongoing collapse of the earth’s biodiversity. No civilization in history has faced a complete reshuffling of the planet’s biosphere, let alone the ecological armageddon brought on by a Pandora’s box of pollutants from industrial civilization. Microplastics are literally raining from the sky. Irrevocably out-of-step with the natural world, modern civilization is destroying its host ecosystem by altering the geochemistry of the planet. A mass extinction event unlike any in Earth’s history is underway. Even if a small fraction of the global population survives this overshoot, it will take 10 million years for biodiversity to bounce back. Since atmospheric CO2 will ultimately be drawn down through a very slow natural process called sedimentation, the Earth will not reach pre-industrial CO2 levels again for more than 100,000 years. The last time CO2 levels were this high was 3 millions years ago during the Pliocene when temperatures were 3-4°C(5-7°F) higher globally than today, and sea levels were 15-20 meters(50-65 feet) higher. It was too warm for glacial ice sheets to even exist in the northern hemisphere.

At 412 ppm and rising, experts said temperature rises of 3-4C are likely now locked in.

What does any honest scientist have to say about mankind’s prospects in a 4°C world:

“There is a widespread view that a +4ºC future is incompatible with an organized global community, is likely to be beyond adaptation, is devastating to the majority of ecosystems and has a high probability of not being stable.”
Professor Kevin Anderson, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research (Video, 58:00)

“We have already observed impacts of climate change on agriculture. We have assessed the amount of climate change we can adapt to. There’s a lot we can’t adapt to even at 2C. At 4C the impacts are very high and we cannot adapt to them.”
Rachel Warren, University of East Anglia

“There is a growing sense of panic in those who really understand what a 4°C world might be like.”
Prof. Will Steffan, Director of the Australian National University Climate Change Institute

“Thinking through the implications of 4 degrees of warming shows that the impacts are so significant that the only real adaptation strategy is to avoid that at all cost because of the pain and suffering that is going to cost.”
Prof. Neil Adger, University of Exeter

“…there is also no certainty that adaptation to a 4°C world is possible. A 4°C world is likely to be one in which communities, cities and countries would experience severe disruptions, damage, and dislocation, with many of these risks spread unequally. It is likely that the poor will suffer most and the global community could become more fractured, and unequal than today. The projected 4°C warming simply must not be allowed to occur.”
World Bank report (2012) Turn down the heat: why a 4°C warmer world must be avoided

“If we don’t reduce greenhouse gas emissions and ultimately stabilize CO2 — and we also have to draw down a lot of carbon out of the atmosphere. If we don’t achieve that, there’s no real prospect for a stable society or even a governable society…”
Jason Box, Prof in glaciology at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland 

People are completely oblivious to our dependence on the complex adaptive systems that allow humans to exist and persist. To be clear, when the global temperature rises by 4°C within this century it will be faster than the blink of a geological eye, and we, along with 80% or more of the planet’s species are finished. 96% of all marine species and more than two-thirds of terrestrial species perished during the Great Dying at the Permian-Triassic interface. Global mean temperature at that time rose an estimated 5-8°C over a timespan of 3,000-20,000 years. A 4°C rise over just two centuries will be a rate of warming 15 to 100 times faster than that past extinction event. At this speed of warming, regions would experience temperature spikes of 10-15 degrees above normal in some months. Ecosystems would implode and the services they provide that sustain us would be obliterated. Virtually every vertebrate species on Earth would disappear, along with most plants and many invertebrates.

At just 1°C of warming we are already seeing major ecosystems such as coral reefs unraveling. Hurricanes so powerful that they require a new category now barrel across the Atlantic ocean and completely decimate islands; the cataclysmic Storms of our Grandchildren that Hansen warned about have only just begun. Arctic permafrost melt has already exceeded 2090 projections. It was economist William Nordhaus that set the 2°C warming target in 1975, not scientists. What did he get for this dangerous speculation, divorced from empirics? The Nobel, naturally. These days he is saying 3.5°C is just fine. John Kerry says we cannot leave the climate emergency in the hands of the neanderthals in power, but I dare say that anyone promoting mainstream economic theory is guilty of omnicide. Capitalism’s “extractivism” has turned the entire planet into a sacrifice zone.

Grand Bahama island before/after Hurricane Dorian made landfall, Sept 1, 2019

Humanity has essentially documented its own demise for the last half century while the Keeling curve inexorably rises faster than ever. As MIT Prof Daniel Rothman says, “When carbon levels in the atmosphere spike dramatically, the web of life collapses.” We are now seeing a record 10ppm of CO2 rise every four years and have have failed to curb emissions growth let alone move towards any sort of carbon neutral world. Alternative energies remain a sliver of total global energy consumption. In fact, “the annual increase in global energy use is greater than the increase in renewable energy, meaning fossil fuel use continues to grow.”

The rise of political ‘populism’ and the election of reactionary politicians in the U.S. and abroad has thrown yet another monkey wrench into any possibility of tackling the climate crisis. The demagogic Trump administration is simply burying any scientific evidence and ignoring its government’s own research on such things as the recent surge in climate refugees from Latin America due to climate-induced food insecurity. Russia and Brazil have both encouraged and precipitated the wildfire infernos raging in their countries. The catastrophe unfolding in the Amazon is a direct result of President Bolsonaro’s neoliberal policies designed to plunder the Amazon much like Trump’s dismantling of the EPA and deregulation of corporations. Both ignore the science of climate change and the reality of ecological collapse. In the case of Russia’s Putin, it was a cold economic calculus: “If the cost of putting out these remote fires is greater than the profit that could be made from selling the timber, they can decide to let it burn.”

And then there’s the global debt bomb of $250 trillion waiting to explode, not to mention the $200-250 trillion global carbon debt which increases by 16 trillion every year. Meanwhile, banks are quietly shielding themselves from climate catastrophe at taxpayers’ expense by shifting risky coastal mortgages off their books and onto the federal government’s Fannie and Freddie programs. Just as the U.S. government is leaving vulnerable countries to fend for themselves, so are private institutions unloading the risks onto the public. For those at the very top of our economic pyramid scheme who control public policy, dwindling resources will be kept first and foremost for them while everyone else is treated as collateral damage. This dereliction of responsibility, this cutting and running, is how the deteriorating conditions of the world are being handled. Throughout history, society’s elite have shown the same arrogance and hubris in the face of impending calamity. For example, the Fall of the Roman Empire:

If you read the chronicles of the early 5th century AD, you get the impression of total mayhem, with barbarian armies crisscrossing Europe and few, if any, Roman nobles and commanders trying to defend the Empire. Most of them seemed to be maneuvering to find a safe place where they could find safety for themselves. We don’t know what was the final destiny of Rutilius Namatianus but, since he had the time to finish his poem, we may imagine that he could build himself a castle in Southern France and his descendants may have become feudal lords. But not everyone made it. For instance, Paulinus of Pella, another rich Roman, contemporary of Namatianus, desperately tried to hold on his possessions in Europe, eventually considering himself happy just for having been able of surviving to old age.

We see a pattern here: when the rich Romans saw that things were going really out of control, they scrambled to save themselves while, at the same time, denying that things were so bad as they looked. We can see that clearly in Namatianus’ poem: he never ever hints that Rome was doomed. At most, he says, it was a temporary setback and soon Rome will be great again.

Thunberg’s speech alluded to such behavior by the polluting nations:

For more than 30 years, the science has been crystal clear. How dare you continue to look away and come here saying that you’re doing enough, when the politics and solutions needed are still nowhere in sight. You say you hear us and that you understand the urgency. But no matter how sad and angry I am, I do not want to believe that. Because if you really understood the situation and still kept on failing to act, then you would be evil. And that I refuse to believe.

Yes, Greta, they are evil; they have access to every expert on the seriousness of the crisis and they are building walls and saving their own skin while continuing business-as-usual. Lest we forget, the fossil fuel industry’s own scientists accurately predicted the life-threatening effects of its product decades ago and not only did they do nothing to stop it, they funded and orchestrated a vast network of climate denial propaganda which continues to this day and have raced to exploit even more fossil fuels from the melting Arctic. When you consider that billions of people are going to die as a result, their actions become by far the greatest crimes against humanity ever committed. Make no mistake, our society is trading a livable planet for an unsustainable way of life that is irreparably depleting finite resources and altering the earth for eons, making it uninhabitable for organized human societies. Each day of business-as-usual further degrades the planet’s biodiversity.

“As the temperature rises, the patricians will seek refuge as polar migrants, or set sail on heavily armed ocean liners. Millions more will live in underground cities, anywhere to escape the sun. Dazzling reports of new methods for sopping up the gigatons of carbon dioxide will create ripples of enthusiasm and then fade in the next news cycle. Fisheries and agriculture will collapse, drugs will provide little solace, and everyone will curl up in a foetal position in the end, like the ash-entombed victims at Pompeii, whimpering in the inescapable heat. The likelihood of this outcome increases as the years pass and the smoke rises.”
~ Nicholas P. Money, THE SELFISH APE: Human Nature and Our Path to Extinction

The Trumpocene: Darkness Gathers

22 Wednesday Feb 2017

Posted by in Climate Change, Consumerism, Corporate State, Cyber-Warfare, Ecological Overshoot, Environmental Degradation, Inequality, Peak Oil, Pollution

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“The point of modern propaganda isn’t only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” – Gary Kasparov

With each passing day, the mental stability of our narcissistic, megalomaniacal president is increasingly being called into question by those unnerved from his erratic behavior. The unhinged press conferences, comically embarrassing meetings with world leaders, and uncensored tweets reveal just how illiterate, delusional, and divisive America’s first reality TV president truly is, and the consequences won’t be confined to the imaginary world of a television screen. The irony is that the very news media networks whom the president disparages on a daily basis were instrumental in getting him elected, allowing Trump’s circus to hog the headlines in an ‘issues free’ campaign. Trump received $1.9 billion in free media coverage, 190 times as much as he paid for while the major networks made tons of revenue off Trump’s theatrics. Driving this symbiotic relationship is the fierce competition for ratings determining the advertising revenue and bottom line of these corporate-owned news networks. The media exploited Trump’s sensationalist behavior for profit, helping to drive his campaign to the top of this money-grubbing pyramid scheme. We are, as Neil Postman mused, amusing ourselves to death. Most of these networks are now busy trying to contain the monster they helped create. The other great irony is that America is getting a taste of its own medicine after having meddled in other country’s elections for decades; the CIA was one of the early developers of cyber warfare and is one of the world’s most ruthless practitioners of it.

Of the many Trump lies glossed over by corporate media, the most dangerous one is that anthropogenic climate change is a hoax. The Trump administration is riddled with like-minded Flat-Earthers bent on dismantling the EPA and stoking fossil fuel consumption. In Trumpland, alternative facts are as valid as any empirical evidence. Scientists are being muzzled and the masses are being gaslighted. Conspiracy theories, hearsay, and pure fantasy have replaced meaningful public discourse. We have a demagogue working to blind everyone to what scientists are telling us and our own eyes can see. A civilization which cannot discern the truth cannot make rational decisions for the future, let alone the present. Trump’s kleptocracy will flourish in such an environment while repeating the mantra, “It’s all about the American people.”

The dumbing down of American is most evident in the slow decay of substantive content in the enormously influential media, the 30 second sound bites (now down to 10 seconds or less), lowest common denominator programming, credulous presentations on pseudoscience and superstition, but especially a kind of celebration of ignorance” ~ Carl Sagan

The loss of the Fairness Doctrine in 1987 was an important milestone in America’s decline towards a “post-truth” culture, paving the way for the “outrage industry” and talk radio demagogues like Rush Limbaugh. Twitter is the new bully pulpit for a tyrant-aspiring charlatan, and his antics serve as a useful tool for distracting the public from the right-wing agenda of extreme deregulation and privatization, otherwise known as the Overthrow Project. The biggest danger of wealth inequality is capture of the political system by the elites. This has already happened in America and abroad to the extent that there is now a new globalized elite who have more fealty towards each other than their country of origin, completely lacking positive feelings and loyalty towards their own native lands. The existing oligarchy is being strengthened at the expense of an already polarized and economically disenfranchised society. The Trump regime is corporatism on steroids.

As the famous saying goes, “There’s a sucker born every minute” and Trump is just the latest huckster to exploit them. His rhetoric appeals to people’s emotions and raises their dopamine levels, but facts have a tendency to get in the way of a good story. Trump’s base of supporters, however, appear immune to facts that contradict their leaders’s disinformation. One of his big campaign pledges was to bring back the manufacturing base of the U.S. and revive the Rust Belt, but this promise rings hollow in the age of techno-capitalism. Machines have taken over manufacturing and Trump’s protectionist policies will in all likelihood accelerate this process. AI promises to bring even more radical disruption to the job market:

At a time when the Trump administration is promising to make America great again by restoring old-school manufacturing jobs, AI researchers aren’t taking him too seriously. They know that these jobs are never coming back, thanks in no small part to their own research, which will eliminate so many other kinds of jobs in the years to come, as well…

In the US, the number of manufacturing jobs peaked in 1979 and has steadily decreased ever since. At the same time, manufacturing has steadily increased, with the US now producing more goods than any other country but China. Machines aren’t just taking the place of humans on the assembly line. They’re doing a better job. And all this before the coming wave of AI upends so many other sectors of the economy.

Trump’s fake stance on protecting American workers will not unwind decades of globalization, unrelenting automation, or the machinations of corporate capitalism. His promise to reignite the coal industry is yet more empty rhetoric; independent energy experts at BNEF dismantle his claim:

Coal power is just too costly and inflexible, explains BNEF: “Super-low-cost renewable power — what we are now calling ‘base-cost renewables’ — is going to force a revolution in the way power grids are designed, and the way they are regulated.”

When you add the revolution in cheap fracked gas — which Trump has pledged to double down on — it’s no surprise the country shut down over 40 gigawatts of coal-fired power stations since 2000…

It’s also being driven by a collapse in the export market, as countries from Europe to Asia also move away from coal because of its economic and human cost…

So Trump won’t be bringing back the domestic coal industry. And even if he could, he can’t bring back the jobs because it’s the coal industry itself that wiped out most of those jobs through productivity gains from “strip mines and machinery”…

Conveniently ignoring the harmful environmental impacts and the fact that illegal immigration has been on the decline for the past decade, the proposed Trump Wall is an expensive monument to xenophobia and misguided fears. No wall will prevent those determined to circumvent it, but if you listen to the engineers and experts who actually have experience working at the border, then it’s not a solid continuous wall(projected to take 16 years to complete) but a partial fence that would be more effective and feasible, and that’s if you believe that Americans will take the place of those millions of migrant farm workers who leave their homes every year to plant, cultivate, harvest, and pack America’s fruits, vegetables and nuts, in addition to the millions of other low-skilled and low-paying jobs that immigrants perform. Capitalism thrives on the back of cheap labor, but even these jobs are not safe from machines.

What kind of world is going to support all this labor-saving, hi-tech gadgetry when its creators are too short-sighted to maintain the habitability of the planet for their own descendants? There is no deus ex machina to prevent catastrophic collapse of the oceans nor is there one to stop catastrophic climate change. Industrial civilization is a one-hit wonder for which there are no solutions that scale up to the mountain of problems it has created. Dealing with the environmental costs of fossil fuels is the classic “prisoner’s dilemma” whereby the incentive to cheat for short-term economic gain prevents the cooperation needed by everyone. The economic, legal, and moral framework to tackle climate change simply does not exist. The invisible hand of the “free market” has turned into the boot of environmental catastrophe.

Primates, mankind’s closest biological cousins in the animal kingdom, are in steep decline because they have the “misfortune of being concentrated in areas rich in certain resources precious to their sapient but ravenous cousins.” Not even our fellow human beings can escape war and death when they live atop coveted resources, so what chance does any other species have?

“People have argued that we only have to worry about human-caused extinctions if we do something that causes the loss of 80 or 90 percent of species on the planet,” said UC Berkeley environmental scientist James W. Kirchner.

“Our analysis shows that even if the human impact is much smaller than that – 20 or 30 or even 50 percent of species – it’s still going to take 10 million years for the Earth to recover. That is well past the expected life span of the human species, or even of the genus Homo.” – Link

The study quoted above was from the year 2000 and has the usual hopeful spin:

“It is not preordained that high levels of human-caused extinction have to happen,” Kirchner said. “Our future depends on what we choose to do on a national and international level, as a society. Those decisions are critical because they will have very long-lasting consequences.”

Not surprisingly, we have failed to heed that advice. Scientists say our rampant road building has dissected the Earth’s land into 600,000 fragments too small to support significant wildlife. A new study covering 130 countries finds deforestation rises with incomes in developing economies and never reverses. This is particularly troubling because Africa is a developing continent with some of the world’s largest tracts of remaining undisturbed forests and biodiversity hotspots. Biodiversity loss is an existential threat comparable to climate change. The glaring warning from all these studies is that the Western way of life exported across the entire planet has brought us to a point of cataclysmic overshoot. Business-as-usual only exacerbates the crisis:

Real-world CO2 emissions have tracked the high end of earlier [IPCC] emissions scenarios, and until the currently wealthy countries can produce a large decline in their own emissions per capita, it is dubious to project that emissions per capita in the less developed countries will not continue on a trajectory up to the levels of currently wealthy countries…[The top 10% of the economically wealthy in the world produce almost as much total GHG emissions as the bottom 90% combined]… – Link

Trump peddles the false hope of regaining material wealth for a collapsing middle class with his slogan “Make America great again”, but after being elected, is giving more power and riches to those who have created this environmental and social catastrophe. Capitalism is, as Martin Luther King observed, “socialism for the rich, rugged individualism for the poor.” Nonetheless, in the bigger scheme of modern civilization’s looming collapse, the ‘Trumpocene’ amounts to nothing more than polishing the brass on the Titanic.

A time is coming when what we do to Earth is completely overshadowed by what Earth does to us. We have already condemned the planet to an ice-free Arctic and no amount of techno-fixes will return it to its former state. Were humans to disappear today from the Earth, the after-effects of our massive fossil fuel binge would reverberate for aeons. The last time there was an ice-free Arctic was during the Eemian period 125,000 years ago at the height of the last major interglacial period, but the CO2 levels of today are much higher now and causing the climate to change at a rate that is 170 times that of natural forces with much more warming to come. According to a new study, manmade global warming is replicating conditions that triggered an abrupt sea level rise of several meters in the ocean around Antarctica some 15,000 years ago. The damage done is irreversible not only on a human timescale or a civilizational time scale, but a species timescale. The total global carbon dioxide emissions load from the onset of the industrial revolution is enough to push the next ice age back by 100,000 years and only deep geologic time will significantly remediate the chemistry of a CO2-spiked atmosphere. The same is true for ocean acidification. The natural process of continental rock weathering to neutralize all of the CO2 from human activity that is entering the oceans would take hundreds of thousands of years. Plankton blooms, a key part of the entire marine food web and the biological carbon pump, are being disrupted by warming, acidifying oceans. The Great Barrier Reef is expected to be completely dead within the next two decades and 98% of all reefs around the world gone by mid century. The latest research indicates ocean acidification is much worse for corals that previously thought.

Manmade persistent organic pollutants(POPs) such as PCBs and flame retardants can be found in the most remote places on Earth such as the 36,000-foot-deep Mariana Trench in the western Pacific Ocean where researchers tested crustaceans and found them to contain 50 times more POPs than crabs living in one of China’s most polluted rivers. Once these endocrine-disrupting compounds settle into the sediments, they can remain there for thousands of years before being disturbed and recirculated into the environment once again as a contaminant. Microplastics less than 5mm in size are ubiquitous in the environment, having been documented in the waters of both the Arctic and Antarctic and recently found on 73% of Britain’s beaches.

The irrational ramblings of a demagogue won’t change a shifting earth laying waste to a once rich ecosphere and grinding to dust the landmarks of modern man. Delusions and protestations have no bearing on the laws of chemistry and thermodynamics.