Tags
Addiction to Fossil Fuels, Arctic Ice Melt, Benjamin Franklin, Capitalism, Climate Change, Collapse of Industrial Civilization, Corporatocracy, Derrick Jensen, Dystopic Future, Eco-Apocalypse, Empire, Environmental Collapse, Extinction of Man, Financial Elite, Free Market Ideologues, Greenwashing, Inverted Totalitarianism, Laissez-Faire Capitalism, Mass Die Off, Peak Oil, Peak Water, Pink Floyd - Money, Privatization, Runaway Climate Change, The Elite 1%, Venus Syndrome, Wall Street Fraud, War for Profit
“Hey, my name’s Luke. The year is 2060 and I live in what was once called America. As you can see, the ‘developed world’ never was able to kick its fossil fuel habit. They just kept turning to dirtier sources and more extreme processes to burn the stuff, like the liquefaction and gasification of coal. The entire planet became a sacrifice zone for the sake of keeping mega cities lit up and the machinery humming, but ultimately it was death by a thousand cuts. Entropy was the victor. GHG’s continued to rise, warm the planet, and wreak havoc on the biosphere. Cancer and industrial disease spread to every corner of the globe. Weather patterns were drastically altered until the world’s food production was forced to move indoors. Large-scale cloning of animals became common practice in order to feed the several hundred million surviving people. War, drought, floods, fresh water scarcity, and a rash of pandemics crashed the world’s population from a high of 8 billion. The agricultural bread baskets of the world became wastelands of dust and weeds. International cooperation failed and the world’s existing powers scrambled for the last remaining resources. There are none who buy into the propaganda of a “better world” any longer because the stark evidence of what we have done to the planet cannot possibly be hidden from view. There is no utopian sanctuary for anyone to escape to, no matter how many gold coins one has managed hoard. Despite this realization and even after all the geoengineering mishaps, people still cling to the belief of salvation through technology. Everyone lives in fortified bunkers to escape the hot, drying winds that sometimes carry poisonous and toxic clouds. When we do venture out, gas masks are always worn as well as long clothing to protect from the thinning ozone layer. Industrial smoke stacks still belch plumes into the air to keep the underground cities running.”
“When above ground, I’ll spend hours walking through the wreckage of industrial civilization, the skeletons of its skyscrapers blotting out the sun like the mythical Redwood trees once did along the west coast. The occasional sound of a steel beam crashing to the ground or a glass window shattering breaks the ghostly silence. These deserted cities are infested with rats the size of small dogs, and the ray of my flashlight is reflected in their staring eyes. The endless and self-defeating rat race of humans has now been replaced by the scurrying, scavenging, and fighting of real rats. I find it amazing that my ancestors spent their entire lives living and working inside these little office cubicles. That was a time when Earth was still green and you could hear the birds chirping and singing outside your window. I’ve got a digital recording of various holographic scenes depicting bygone days of nature that I project inside the confines of my subterranean home, but I’d give my right arm to experience the real thing. To think that people were once surrounded by nature all the time amazes me. Its true value had never really been calculated. Rather, money seems to have been what people were most preoccupied with back then. On one of my excursions I came across a dwelling whose crumbling walls were packed with stacks of moldy paper money. Whoever lived there must have worked an entire lifetime to eke out a savings of that size, stuffing it into every wall cavity like it was insulation. Many thought humans would go extinct long before money would ever cease to exist. I guess they were wrong.”
“They say the people of this country went mad, obsessed with money as it overtook their every thought, decision, and activity. One of America’s forefathers once said, ‘He that is of the opinion money will do everything may well be suspected of doing everything for money.‘ All things were framed within the context of money. Environmental damage was discussed in terms of financial setbacks to the economy. Political leaders made decisions based, first and foremost, on the financial interests of those powerful few who put them in office. Choices on matters involving the well-being of humanity were made solely in the interests of corporations and stockholders. Even as the overwhelming evidence mounted that mankind’s place on earth was becoming evermore tenuous, the money worshippers continued to find ways to profit from calamity and mayhem. Preserving the Earth simply was not profitable, so they let it die. The Arctic melted, so they raided its open waters. The land became parched, so they invested in water rights. CO2 levels skyrocketed, so they put their money into carbon credits. Our continued existence became a crap shoot in the marketplace. The vultures of capitalism were able to profit from the collapse; thusly, such nightmarish and dystopian scenarios as botched geoengineering schemes, a Venus syndrome on earth, and ultimately human extinction were allowed to become sober realities….”
‘No matter what we call it, poison is still poison, death is still death, and industrial civilization is still causing the greatest mass extinction in the history of the planet.’
~ Derrick Jensen
…Q. I was fascinated by your chapter on Shell Oil’s climate-risk scenario planners. Tell our readers a bit about that program.
A. It’s sort of a futurism that they helped develop back in the ’60s and ’70s. Every five or so years they come out with new scenarios — stories about what the future could be. Sometimes there are competing stories, two or three versions of what the world could look like, and they flesh them out internally and externally so they can have their analysts really think about what they would do if that particular reality came to pass. In 2008, Shell released two scenarios: Blueprint and Scramble. Blueprint was an approximation of the world as we want it to be, which is to say there’s [climate] action at a local level but also at an international level eventually to cut carbon emissions and move to greener sources of energy. That was their happier scenario, and they also said for the first time that was the scenario they preferred.
Q. What about the rival scenario?
A. In Scramble, events outpace actions on climate change: It’s a race for coal, a race for resources, and our energy systems don’t keep up with demand at all, and certainly they don’t go greener than they are. So, heavy reliance on fossil fuels — particularly coal. At the end of 2012, I think, I asked them, “Have we gone to Blueprint or have we gone to Scramble?” The head of their scenarios team said. “We’ve gone to Scramble. This is a Scramble kind of world. This is what we’re doing.”…
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Most commenters on this site oppose Blueprint……moving into greener sources of energy. Are you all for Scramble?
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I’m not for Scramble, but for
A Prosperous Way Down
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Me too. But that is going to require a gigantic adjustment in the world’s population numbers.
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Ooph. Rats–must be a metaphor for something . . . .
http://twentytwowords.com/2013/12/16/this-video-of-a-rat-trapped-on-an-escalator-must-be-a-metaphor-for-something/
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You said it! 😦 🙂 😦 Sorry I’m not eloquent :-). Our destruction of the World is driven by the fear of our deaths but paradoxically ultimately will give us our mass death.
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Energy Conference: World “Sleepwalking” into Crisis.
Posted: 24 Jan 2014 05:09 AM PST
A teleconference of world energy, financial, political and military officials organized out of Washington and London last month agreed that a full-blown global energy crisis could erupt as early as 2016. The conference was convened by Daniel Davis, a whistleblower colonel in the United States Army “acting in a private … Continue reading →
This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now
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It’s good to know there are other ‘nutters’ around who can distinguish between fact and fiction.
It’s been quite cool again, today around 18 to 20oC, with intermittent heavy rain. Some people would love that, I know, but here it’s supposed to be nearly the height of summer.
Every time I look at semorerocks I get the impression it’s rapidly turning into a war zone ‘out there’:
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Gail Tverberg, and most commenters here, say do NOT move into green energy, giving lots of info how stupid wind and solar are. Best to just stay on our present course, they seem to say.
I’m presently fighting anti-wind forces here in my county and state, and I think there are good reasons for all of us, everybody, to support green energy. The alternative is to sit and bitch about the way we are allowing the fossil fuel cabal to determine our future, essentially giving them the keys to the car in which we are all riding, no matter that they are completely drunk on greed.
Maybe there is not much hope of turning our march toward extinction around, but I feel a lot better opposing the “vultures of capitalism” on the way down.
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Fascism Checklist, as seen on the seemorerocks blog:
http://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/2014/01/fascism.html
1. Powerful and Continuing Nationalism
2. Disdain for the Recognition of Human Rights
3. Identification of Enemies/Scapegoats as a Unifying Cause
4. Supremacy of the Military
5. Rampant Sexism
6. Controlled Mass Media
7. Obsession with National Security
8. Religion and Government are Intertwined
9. Corporate Power is Protected
10. Labor Power is Suppressed
11. Disdain for Intellectuals and the Arts
12. Obsession with Crime and Punishment
13. Rampant Cronyism and Corruption
14. Fraudulent Elections
Hmm, let’s see now… Check. Check. Check. Check. Check. Check. Check. Check. Check. Check. Check. Check. Check. And,… Check.
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Now this is depressing:
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/1/25/pollution-west-virginiawatercrisiscoalminingindustryenvironment.html
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Hello Miep,
I’ve enjoyed your comments at Scribbler’s site.
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Hi Xray, thanks. You are doing some interesting writing here too.
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In what Walker called the “deep future” — about the 2030 to 2040 time frame — he said that “we’ll need to fundamentally change the nature of the force, and that would require a breakthrough in science and technology.”
While Walker, the commander of the Army Capabilities Integration Center, which oversees much of the Army’s modernization and doctrinal changes, didn’t talk about replacing soldiers with robots, he did say the Army wants to revamp its “tooth-to-tail” ratio, or the number of soldiers performing support functions versus those who actually pull triggers.
http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140120/DEFREG02/301200035/US-Army-Studying-Replacing-Thousands-Grunts-Robots
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rats? maybe. my money is on the nightstalker, which is still a rodent.

of course dixon’s creatures are from 40 million years in the future, however, considering the levels of radioactive contamination which will be available, the pace of evolution might just kick up a notch or two.
and that is assuming there are not chimeras already waiting in the wings, courtesy of some secret govt./private lab somewhere.
and i’m not kidding.
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I don’t recommend viewing this, unless you really want to cry or feel the pain associated with realizing how depraved humanity is, but here you go:
http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.nz/2014/01/dolphin-slaughter-in-japan-and-denmark.html
Sunday, 26 January 2014
Dolphin slaughter in Japan – and Denmark
As much as lying I hate hypocrisy such what is being perpetrated here.
The whole world’s media has been concentrated on the slaughter of dolphins at Taiji Cove in Japan
Japan is denounced quote correctly.
At the same time, quietly, away from the attention of media a similar slaughter is being committed – in Denmark.
Dolphin slaughter – Rank hypocrisy
In Japan
CNN
The slaughter of bottlenose dolphins in an infamous Japanese cove took place on Tuesday.
About 500 dolphins were driven into the cove this year, a larger number than usual, according to the local Taiji fishermen’s union. A fisherman who is a union board member, and who did not want to be named, told CNN that the total number of dolphins to be captured or slaughtered was less than 100, and that the rest would be released.
[especially this part, almost too heartbreaking to bear]
Meanwhile in Denmark…..
Dolphin slaughter in Denmark
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http://arctic-news.blogspot.ca/2014/01/high-methane-levels-over-the-arctic-ocean-on-january-14-2014.html
High methane levels over the Arctic Ocean on January 14, 2014
Above image shows IASI methane levels on January 14, 2014, when levels as high as 2329 ppb were recorded. This raises a number of questions. Did these high methane levels originate from releases from the Arctic Ocean, and if so, how could such high methane releases occur from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean at this time of year, when temperatures in the northern hemisphere are falling?
Location
Let’s first establish where the methane releases occurred that caused these high levels. After all, high methane concentrations are visible at a number of areas, most prominently at three areas, i.e. at the center of the Arctic Ocean, in Baffin Bay and over an area in Asia stretching out from the Taklamakan Desert to the Gobi Desert.
Closer examination, illustrated by the inset, shows that the highest methane levels were recorded in the afternoon, and at altitudes where methane concentrations over these Asian deserts and over Baffin Bay were less prominent, leading to the conclusion that these high methane levels did indeed originate from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.
The image below, showing 1950+ ppb readings over the past few days, illustrates the magnitude of the methane concentrations over the Arctic Ocean.
High concentrations persist over the Arctic Ocean
High methane concentrations have persistently shown up over the Arctic Ocean from October 1, 2013, into January 2014. On January 19, 2014, levels as high as 2363 ppb were recorded over the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below.
Causes
What caused these high releases from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean to persist for so long? At this time of year, one may have thought that the water in the Arctic Ocean would be much colder than it was, say, on October 1, 2013.
Actually, as the combination image below shows, sea surface temperatures have not decreased much at the center of the Arctic Ocean between early October, 2013 (left) and January 14, 2014 (right). In the area where these high methane concentrations occured, sea surface temperatures have remained the same, at about zero degrees Celsius.
Furthermore, as the above image shows, surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean may have fallen dramatically with the change of season, but temperatures in the Arctic Ocean have changed only little.
In this case of course, what matters more than surface temperatures are water temperatures at greater depth. Yet, even here temperatures in the Arctic Ocean will have decreased only slightly since early October 2013, as the Gulf Stream has continued to push warmer water into the Arctic, i.e. water warmer than the water in the Arctic Ocean. In other words, the heating impact of the Gulf Stream has continued.
Furthermore, as the sea ice extent increased, there have been less opportunities for the heat to evaporate on the surface and for heat to be transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the air.
Finally, what matters a lot is salinity. The combination image below compares salinity levels between October 1, 2013 (left), and January 14, 2014 (right).
[read the rest]
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pollinators being overwhelmed by climate change forces – on their way out (and we’re next)
Plant STD linked to honeybee collapse
[selected quotes, read this article!]
Major crops including soybeans and tobacco can suffer from a crippling malady called tobacco ringspot virus. The disease is spread through sex, which in the plant kingdom involves the freaky use of vibrating creatures: bees. Honeybees and other pollinators carry infected pollen from one plant to the other and, in doing so, can spread the virus, which is also called TRSV.
What’s really freaky is that scientists have discovered that bees can become infected with the ringspot virus of the plants upon which they feed. The researchers report in the journal mBio that the unusual inter-kingdom host-species jump could be linked to colony collapse disorder.
[concludes]
When these researchers investigated bee colonies classified as “strong” or “weak,” TRSV and other viruses were more common in the weak colonies than they were in the strong ones. Bee populations with high levels of multiple viral infections began failing in late fall and perished before February, these researchers report. In contrast, those in colonies with fewer viral assaults survived the entire cold winter months. …
“The increasing prevalence of TRSV in conjunction with other bee viruses is associated with a gradual decline of host populations and supports the view that viral infections have a significant negative impact on colony survival,” these researchers conclude.
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i’m sure you’ve heard about the economic troubles ramping up:
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jan/24/emerging-market-currency-chaos-stock-markets
Emerging market chaos hits stock markets and currencies
Traders reacted to concerns that Argentina, Turkey, South Africa among others might be on the brink of currency crises
A series of political scandals and accusations of mismanagement in some of the world’s major developing economies triggered turmoil on international stock exchanges on Friday.
The FTSE 100 fell more than 100 points, or 1.6%, and the US Dow Jones dropped 1.2% as traders reacted to concerns that Argentina, Turkey, South Africa and several vulnerable Central American nations might be on the brink of a currency crisis. Political instability in Ukraine and the nose-diving Venezuelan economy added to the nervous atmosphere on exchanges, which have spent the last few weeks galloping ahead on the back of stronger growth forecasts in the US, UK and Japan.
Central banks waded into the markets in an effort to stabilise currencies that were rapidly depreciating in an emerging markets selloff.
In the wake of the collapse of the Argentine peso, which kickstarted the latest wave of selling, the Turkish lira hit record lows despite spending an estimated £1bn to prop up the currency’s value during the day. The rouble and the rand languished at levels not seen since the 2008-09 financial crisis.
Some analysts blamed profligate government spending and corruption for the turmoil affecting some countries. Turkey is in the grip of a corruption investigation that has come close to the prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, while Ukraine’s president, Viktor Yanukovych, is facing violent protests that have spread from the capital, Kiev.
Others blamed weakening demand for raw materials as the Chinese economy slows. The US recovery, which will attract investor funds previously parked in developing countries to earn a bigger return, is another destabilising factor.
Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said: “European markets fell flat on their faces as the emerging market currency rout continued, with the Argentine peso, Indian rupee, Turkish lira and South African rand all among the worst decliners, as economic growth concerns start to spread beyond China.
“With expectations rising that the Fed will continue to taper [quantitative easing] next week, de-risking is continuing to see capital flow into safer havens with gold, the Japanese yen and the US dollar the main gainers,” he said.
In Turkey, the central bank has refused to raise interest rates, even though the lira has fallen almost 9% this month, raising fears of mounting inflation and an exodus of investors.
Despite a fire sale of about $1.65bn (£1bn) to calm investors’ nerves, a move that removed almost a 10th of its reserves, the lira dropped almost 2%.
RBS analysts said: “The [Turkish central bank] simply does not have enough firepower to fight the pressure against the lira. It has now exhausted its ‘no hike’ toolkit and its next major policy action will have to be a straightforward increase in the lending rate.”
The lira is only one of many currencies feeling the heat from investor worries. Central banks believed to have intervened to defend their currencies include India, Taiwan and Malaysia. Russia propped up the rouble after $350m in hard currency sales.
Countries that have relied on huge inflows of investor funds over recent years also suffered in the jittery atmosphere. The rupee, the Brazilian real, the rouble and the rand all fell by more than 1% against the dollar. The Russian currency also hit a record low to the euro.
Investors have withdrawn about $4bn from emerging market stock exchanges so far this year.
Argentina’s peso saw its worst one-day trading session since the country’s 2002 financial crisis.
The central bank said it had decided to loosen strict foreign exchange controls, abandoning its long-standing policy of supporting the currency through interventions.
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Then there’s this, to show how ‘interconnected’ the whole business is:
http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.nz/2014/01/bank-run-fears.html
Sunday, 26 January 2014
Bank run fears
As a matter of interest, I could not find any reference to this in the British Press. The Huffington Post mentions it though.
Bank-Run Fears Continue; HSBC Restricts Large Cash Withdrawals
[i’ll leave it to you to peruse if you’re interested]
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At least a Bloomburg columnist is labeling Bill Gates as delusional for his belief that continued development = everyone in the world becomes middle class by 2035. http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-01-21/bill-gates-is-crazy-optimistic-about-ending-poverty
Not extinction. No, no, the Davos group could never admit wrong-doing by spreading the cancer that sucks the life out of the ecosystem to every nook and cranny of the globe. They have the typically bifurcated minds, the wolf inside creates a rationalization in the subservient prefrontal cortex to justify their self-enriching behaviors. I cannot imagine Vaclav Smil’s advice could buttress Gate’s views, but perhaps he has just become a yes-man to Gates. Gates cites China as a great example of progress. If this is true, the Davos group should hold their next meeting in Beijing where the perks of success includes air too toxic to breath. China will soon no longer be known for “The Great Wall” but rather for “The Great Fall”. Maybe Gates is measuring Chinese success by the number of Vancouver Chinese billionaire swindlers showing up at his dinner parties.
I like the sign at this site: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/01/20/notable-in-their-absence-from-davos/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0 World Economic Forum, Committed to Improving the State of the World. Really? How do they figure?
The mayor of London describes the Davos meetings as “a constellation of egos involved in massive mutual orgies of adulation.”
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For Kevin Moore:
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I’m torn between wanting this completely insane system to crash quickly and knowing it will be horrific when it does crash.
As for averting catastrophe, or even preparing for it, nobody with any power to do so is at all interested.
I have a meeting with one of the senior maniacs in the council administration later this week. I’m not holding my breath for any rational statement from him during the entire meeting. Of course, he gets paid a high salary for maintaining his high level of irrationality.
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Perhaps there is a third option, one which I call “how I learned to stop worrying and love entropy”.
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Presumably you don’t have grandchildren.
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I often feel the same way Kevin. In my darker moments, I’ll catch myself cheering it on. I never had kids, but I have nieces and nephews, their parents and my mom. They are all decent and gentle people, but blind and thus completely unprepared. I have tried to warn them, but they think I’m crazy.
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Look at the rampant escalation in mental illness and anxiety disorders to see some of the side-effects of capitalist industrial civilization, namely the atomization of society:
“…The average high school kid today has the same level of anxiety as the average psychiatric patient in the early 1950’s. We are getting more anxious every decade. Psychologists have speculated about the possible reasons for this increase in both anxiety and depression over the last fifty years. Some of the reasons may be a decrease in “social connectedness”—we tend to move more, change jobs, participate less in civic organizations, and we are less likely to participate in religious communities. People are far less likely to get married, more likely to delay getting married, and more likely to live alone. All of these factors can contribute to worry, uncertainty, anxiety and depression…”
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Human Robots
…Then there’s the question of employment, a topic on which the big technology companies seem exceedingly sensitive. Facebook, for example, is given to engaging fancy consultants to produce preposterous claims about the number of jobs it creates. One such “report” claimed that the company, which at the time had a global workforce of about 3,000, indirectly helped create 232,000 jobs in Europe in 2011 and enabled more than $32 billion in revenues. And Apple, stung by criticism about all the work it has outsourced to Foxconn in China, is now driven to claiming it has “created or supported” nearly 600,000 jobs in the U.S.
The really tough question that none of these companies really wants to answer is: What kinds of jobs exactly? Anyone seeking an insight into this would do well to consult a terrific report by Sarah O’Connor, the Financial Times’ economics correspondent. She visited Amazon’s vast distribution centre at Rugeley in Staffordshire and her account of what she found there makes sobering reading.
She saw hundreds of people in orange vests pushing trolleys around a space the size of nine football pitches, glancing down at the screens of their handheld satnav computers for directions on where to walk next and what to pick up when they get there. They do not dawdle because “the devices in their hands are also measuring their productivity in real time.” They walk between 11 and 24 km a day and everything they do is determined by Amazon’s software. “You’re sort of like a robot, but in human form,” one manager told Ms O’Connor. “It’s human automation, if you like.”
Still, it’s a job. Until it’s replaced by a robot.
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Oops—too late:
http://www.chonday.com/Videos/how-the-amazon-warehouse-works
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Not too late, thanks for adding the vid. Now if you could do one of those clever little rhymes about this :).
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Amazon
The rainforest’s being cut through
And there’s not a darn thing we can do;
Sadly, not far ahead,
It will likely be dead,
But most everything else will be too.
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Humans living in 2060 ! – that’s a real knee slapper. TX, I needed that.
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Don’t you just love how the ‘free market’ works.
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2014-01-26/glut-whiff-panic-natural-gas-soars
From Glut to a Whiff of Panic: Natural Gas Soars
testosteronepit’s pictureSubmitted by testosteronepit on 01/26/2014 11:36 -0500
MexicoNatural GasNew York City
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inShare.1
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Wolf Richter http://www.testosteronepit.com http://www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter
On Friday, when stocks were plunging, natural gas soared 9.6% to $5.18 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) at the Henry Hub. Up 20% for the week. The highest close since June 2010.
Back then, the “shale gas revolution” had turned into a crazy no-holds-barred land-grab and fracking boom that veered into overproduction and a “glut” – accompanied by a historic collapse in price. The US could not export its excess production due to export restrictions and the lack of major LNG export terminals. By April 2012, when the Japanese were paying around $17 per MMBtu for LNG on the world markets, natural gas in the US hit a decade low of $1.92 per MMBtu, and predictions that it would go to zero showed up in the mainstream media. That was the bottom.
But nothing can be priced below the cost of production forever. By Friday, natural gas was up 170% from the April 2012 low. Turns out, only a low price can cure a low price.
The low price caused demand to creep up.
Gas exports via pipeline to Mexico have been growing, especially since additional pipeline capacity went into service last year. Mexico is switching power generation from using its own oil to cheap US natural gas. This allows it to export its more valuable oil to the US. Ka-ching. But building gas-fired generating capacity is a slow-moving process.
Other exports are also moving forward – in people’s heads. There are pipelines between the US and Canada, but the US is a net importer. Exports of LNG are at this point still a pipedream, so to speak, though deals are being made, contingent on getting government approvals to export LNG. It’s going to take years before LNG can be exported in large quantities.
But the low price had short-term and structural impacts. Utilities dispatched electricity generation from their coal-fired plants to their gas-fired plants. And there have been structural changes: utilities have built gas-fired power plants and have retired – not mothballed! – their oldest, most inefficient, and most polluting coal-fired power plants. Global industrial companies have been building plants in the US for energy-intensive processes and for processes that use natural gas as feed stock. Even natural gas in transportation is picking up.
The low price destroyed the business model for drillers.
Thousands of unprofitable wells litter the land. Many billions were written off. Real money that had been recklessly thrown around during the boom disappeared into the ground. Investors were lured with false promises. The bloodletting in the industry was enormous. Some of the largest drillers have pulled back from drilling for dry natural gas. Most of the wells that are still being drilled are in fields that are rich in natural-gas liquids and oil, which sell for much higher prices and make wells profitable. Dry natural gas has become a byproduct. In the immensely productive Bakken shale-oil field in North Dakota, where gas occurs along with oil, 30% of it is flared – burned at the well as a waste product. The low price doesn’t justify building pipelines to haul it off.
But shale gas wells have sharp decline rates, and new wells need to be drilled constantly to make up for the decline in older wells. These days, not enough wells are being drilled, and production in all gas plays combined – except for the Marcellus – is already in slight decline. The only production boom left is in the Marcellus: the “shale gas revolution” in the US is now a one-pony show.
In January 2012, according to Baker Hughes, there were 143 rigs drilling for natural gas in the Marcellus – the most prolific parts of which are in Pennsylvania. Today, there are 86. But during the drilling boom, someone forgot to install sufficient pipeline infrastructure. So, wells were shut in, perhaps thousands of them, a giant reservoir waiting for takeaway capacity. That was 2012. Last year, part of a new pipeline network went into service, and bottlenecks were removed, and the gas started flowing to New York City and other places. Drilling is down. Production – the delivery of gas to the markets – is soaring!
How long can it last? Well decline rates in the Marcellus are as steep as elsewhere, and this sudden burst in production, if not supported by a new bout of drilling, will taper off as it has in other fields. And that’s today’s one-pony show of the US “shale gas revolution.”
Then cold fronts swept across the country.
These polar vortices, as they’re now referred to for additional flair, have caused demand for gas as heating fuel to spike to record highs. And more bitter cold weather is being forecast. Natural gas in underground storage dropped to 2,423 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending January 17. The last time storage levels were this low during an equivalent week was in January 2005!
At the time, gas was selling for $12 to $14 per MMBtu and hit an all-time high of $15.40 in December that year. But demand has changed. In 2013, demand was over 18% higher than in 2005; this year, it might be over 20% higher [my article from nine days ago…. Natural Gas Squeeze? “Panic hasn’t ensued just yet”].
And the big money has jumped into the fray.
For years, the favorite game was to short natural gas, playing the glut for all it was worth, a sport that has gotten very complex and, if you get the timing wrong by a few hours, very expensive. Some of the spike late Friday, and some of the action all week, was due to a hard squeeze on these folks – as the big money arrived en masse.
On Wednesday, the big money went public. As reported by MarketWatch, Citi analysts wrote that, “With tight fundamentals, $5 gas is not impossible.” What had been obvious for a while, showed up in the media: “Strong demand is expected to push gas inventories to very low levels with cold weather lingering.” And the price took off once again.
Now everyone is bent over weather data, trying to figure out what nastiness the winter will still serve up, and they’re betting on the weather because cold snaps happen relatively fast and are observable. Watching the fundamentals is like watching paint dry. But it’s the fundamentals that have changed the equation. The polar vortices are merely speeding up the calculus.
Natural gas is famous for its head fakes, unexpected plunges when it should rise, and inexplicable rises when it should drop. It’s being manipulated in a myriad ways. It’s always a bet on the weather, except when it’s not. It can turn around in a second and cause whiplash. It’s a seatbelt-mandatory commodity. And once every few years, there is a panic, and it spikes to dizzying highs.
While natural gas was soaring on Friday, and all week, the rest of the markets were tanking, with emerging markets “trading in full-blown panic mode.” What gives? Read…. A Teeny-Weeny Bit Of Taper, And Look What Happened
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“These polar vortices, as they’re now referred to for additional flair,…..”
Never waste an opportunity.
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This tells a bit about humanity: http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175798/tomgram%3A_greg_grandin%2C_the_terror_of_our_age/#more
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There is a term that is not generally used in polite company in the bush. That term is climate change.
To an outsider’s eyes, it might seem to be counterintuitive. Here are people whose living is mostly dependent on the vagaries of the weather. Yet you will hear more conversation about climate change at a city dinner party than a lazy Sunday afternoon lunch in the bush.
The publicly reported attitudes to climate change in rural Australia have been just as confusing.
That is, rural Australians are less likely to be concerned about climate change, less likely to agree it poses a serious threat to our way of life and less likely to trust the science that suggests human activity is responsible for change. Country people are also more likely to think the seriousness of the issue is exaggerated and less likely to think governments need to do more to address climate change. At least, these were the findings of a report last year by the Climate Institute into attitudes towards climate change.
http://www.theguardian.com/news/bush-mail/2014/jan/27/climate-change-is-spoken-of-in-hushed-tones-but-it-wasnt-always-this-way
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Industrial civilization is a terrible pathology of Earth. So an immediate collapse of the industrial civilization (and/or world economic collapse) is the best, is a hope.
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Reblogged this on remindyourmind.
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Very nice post.
http://civilizationaltriage.wordpress.com/
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