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'The Fifties' by David Halberstam, Addiction to Fossil Fuels, Capitalism, Capitalist Modernity, Collapse of Industrial Civilization, Consumerism, Corporate State, Corporatocracy, David Halberstam, Dmitry Orlov, Doomsaying as a Growth Industry, Environmental Collapse, Financial Elite, Gross Inequality, Harry Willis at Waldenswimmer, Inverted Totalitarianism, James Howard Kunstler, Military Industrial Complex, Peak Oil, Police State, Russell Brand, Security and Surveillance State, The Elite 1%
Once in a while in that vast nothingness of the internet I’ll happen across a blog from someone who has something of substance to say. I have also learned that Dmitry Orlov is likely discontinuing any more ‘collapsitarian’ blog posts. Probably not a good subject to dwell on when you have an infant son. In ‘Dmitry flicks it in‘, Harry Willis reminds us that America has been the epicenter of capitalism, always for sale to the highest bidder and now home to a new growth industry – Doomsaying:
[Excerpt]
“…David Halberstam’s book The Fifties was, I think, very enlightening in this regard. We are the home of the chain hotel (Holiday Inn), the chain restaurant (McDonald’s and all its followers), the Big Box stores (Wal-Mart, CostCo), the mega-hardware store (Home Depot, Lowe’s), the strip mall, the suburban housing tract, and most importantly, the concept that corporate power should be concentrated in huge holding companies that own very diverse and large businesses. On this latter point, whether Americans realize it or not, every meal they eat out, every processed food they buy at the market, every sundry (detergent, household necessities) they purchase wherever, every drug and almost everything else they routinely buy is sold to them by about 10 huge holding companies. And all communications are essentially owned by 6 large corporations, so everything you ingest with your ears and eyes is also owned by a corporate cartel.
These huge companies are multinational in character, with much of their business (and payroll) located overseas. They are nominally American, but the sinking mass of the American middle and lower classes here are more or less of marginal relevance to them, and only to the extent that Americans form part of their customer base. The American booboisie needs to be manipulated because the U.S.A. is still nominally a democracy, de jure, although de facto it is what Sheldon Wolin calls an “inverted totalitarian state,” one where the government is owned by Big Business. We are not going to “vote” our way out of this situation, as Russell Brand, among numerous others (including Dmitry Orlov, most definitely) seems to get.
America is a corporate headquarters and tax haven which executes its business plans by means of a huge standing army, which does not often just stand around. We got this way because (a) power always tends to concentrate in fewer and fewer hands, even in a liberal democracy, since as money aggregates it can get rid of legal impediments such as high taxation and anti-trust laws, and (b) because America was the most innovative and naturally-blessed (our peerless real estate) nation on Earth. We also benefitted mightily from intellectual immigration to this country, made possible by the double-digit IQs in charge of Nazi Germany.
I don’t think the United States is going to collapse in the sense that the Collapsarian community talks and writes about. For one thing, the emphasis is too much on Peak Oil. I’ve written before that I think Peak Oil represents a kind of deus ex machina for anti-American wish fulfillment. Some sensitive souls, such as James Kunstler, Dmitry Orlov and many others, are so appalled by the grisly ugliness of the American crapscape, with its chain everything and grotesque proliferation of hideous suburban grids, that they long for some way to predict confidently that it must fall of its own weight. That’s where Peak Oil comes in: you posit that an economy runs on cheap energy, especially petroleum in the American economy, and this gives you a means of assuring everyone that it will all be over soon and an anodyne vision of Norman Rockwell’s neighborhoods will materialize peacefully out of the formless void.
No, I don’t think so. The lower 90% of the American populace has no way to go but down, until it reaches a rough parity with the hard-working masses in Asia who, after all, have many of the same employers as the Americans. The American multi-nationals are indifferent to the fate of their so-called “countrymen,” indifferent to the environment (mountain top removal, fracking, pesticide and fertilizer flushes into the Gulf and oceans, plastic waste, soil erosion, CO2 emissions) and essentially react only when conditions become so dire that the American “platform” is threatened. We’re inflating bubbles again through money printing to retard this natural contraction, and when the bubbles pop (again), we’ll have nother “crisis” which will in fact simply be another step-phase down after the gooey soap is cleaned up. I think that’s how we’ll get there, in a ratchet fashion. We will even adapt to oil high prices, as in fact Americans have done since the 2008 financial crisis began. Americans drive 3% fewer miles now per year than they did 5 years ago, despite increases in population and the “recovery.” Gasoline usage is way down, as people shift to fuel-efficient cars and just leave the car keys on the table in the hallway. Or by the oil can fire under the bridge.
The dramatic immiseration of the American people (thanks, Rob Urie) since 2008 has made catastrophe prediction and doomsaying one of America’s chief growth industries, and many, many writers and speakers have gotten in on the act. But it’s not especially lucrative. Owning one of the Big Corporations is better for that, so the doomsayers drop out and flick it in. It’s always nice to go over to Mom’s house.”
Economic and cultural coercion are readily apparent in our society. And if those don’t work, the corporate state also has policies of overt force – military and law enforcement. You could call this arrangement an ‘open air prison’ or the more apt phrase for America would be ‘inverted totalitarianism’ in which the prisoners aren’t fully aware of their own shackles, transfixed as they are by mass media manipulation, the consumer culture, and the trappings of our high-energy way of life. Is there any wonder that a post apocalyptic scenario holds a certain amount of perverse romanticism for those yearning to escape capitalist modernity?
“It was as if they were in a cage whose door might as well have been wide open, for they could not escape. Nothing outside the cage had any significance, for nothing else existed any more. They stayed in the cage, estranged from everything except the cage, without so much as a flicker of desire for anything outside the bars. It would have been peculiar—indeed impossible—to break out into a place with neither reality nor significance. Absolutely impossible. Inside the cage, in which they had been born and in which they would die, the only tolerable framework of experience was the real, which amounted to an irresistible instinct to act so that things should have significance. Only if things had significance could one breathe, and suffer. It was as though there was an understanding between things and the silent dead that it should be so, for the habit of acting so that things should be significant had become a human instinct, and a seemingly eternal one…The instinct did not try to imagine what might lie beyond… because there was nothing beyond it. Nothing significant. The door stayed open and the cage became more and more painful in its reality…
– Raoul Vaneigem
The Revolution Of Everyday Life
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http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.nz/2013/11/glenn-greenwald.html
Greenwald makes mincemeat of Sackur. Under such circumstances the only option left to the PTB is to veto all discussion of anything of significance; we seem to be not far from that position.
it may well be that the general level of incompetence of those who run the system (as demonstrated in the video link, and as I have discovered when dealing with local government) will be one of the biggest factors in the collapse.
We do know that everything in the political-economic system is founded on lies, and that the system can only continue to stagger on towards the cliff by constantly telling the masses ever bigger lies.
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According to Wolin, there are three main ways in which inverted totalitarianism is the inverted form of classical totalitarianism.
Whereas in Nazi Germany the state dominated economic actors, in inverted totalitarianism, corporations through political contributions and lobbying, dominate the United States, with the government acting as the servant of large corporations. This is considered “normal” rather than corrupt.[6]
While the Nazi regime aimed at the constant political mobilization of the population, with its Nuremberg rallies, Hitler Youth, and so on, inverted totalitarianism aims for the mass of the population to be in a persistent state of political apathy. The only type of political activity expected or desired from the citizenry is voting. Low electoral turnouts are favorably received as an indication that the bulk of the population has given up hope that the government will ever help them.[7]
While the Nazis openly mocked democracy, the United States maintains the conceit that it is the model of democracy for the whole world.[8] Wolin writes:
Inverted totalitarianism reverses things. It is all politics all of the time but a politics largely untempered by the political. Party squabbles are occasionally on public display, and there is a frantic and continuous politics among factions of the party, interest groups, competing corporate powers, and rival media concerns. And there is, of course, the culminating moment of national elections when the attention of the nation is required to make a choice of personalities rather than a choice between alternatives. What is absent is the political, the commitment to finding where the common good lies amidst the welter of well-financed, highly organized, single-minded interests rabidly seeking governmental favors and overwhelming the practices of representative government and public administration by a sea of cash.[9]
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I just want to bring up the point that the collapse will most certainly happen, and much sooner than most can imagine and surely far sooner than anyone will expect. It’s going to happen because the environment is being destroyed day by day with our polluting ways, toxic civilization and chemical imbalance. We’re on course by multiple scientific assessments to overheat before 2030 or so and I’m confident that before that our habitat will be destroyed enough that growing food on an industrial scale will become nearly impossible. I don’t care what the powers that be THINK they can do, but living without food, clean air (it’s being irradiated every day in ever higher concentrations) and potable water isn’t possible. The Pacific is being polluted into a giant dead zone by Fukushima (and the giant plastic gyre that’s already there hasn’t been dealt with either) and other pollution – the effects of which are sometimes washing up on the west coast shores (most probably sink or get eaten by other life and then die too).
We saw what happened the last time gas went over $4 a gallon. There’s a point beyond which the system we have now simply can’t work if costs are too high. The suppliers can’t sell enough to pass on the costs to the masses common people who can’t afford their overpriced wares on meager salaries and won’t buy them (but might steal them or resort to violence to obtain them). Therefore I envision societal breakdown during one of these “ratchet” events.
Yeah, nobody wants to hear about it, or talk about it because there’s nothing we can do to avert it. Our ‘leaders’ won’t even consider changing course, the media exploits the topic to sell it back to us as a blockbuster movie, and people talk about their coming retirements as if everything will just stay the same in the coming years. Oh, there’s “no chance” of an economic collapse or a social revolution (that actually changes anything for the better, in a world of diminished resources), so it’s distraction all the time now. Unfortunately, ya just can’t wish this stuff away – even if you ignore it!
Meanwhile the elite are prepping their bunkers to stay out of the way when it all goes to shit, maybe during one of the coming “ratchet down” events – like riding out the storm, only to emerge in the light of a new day, the rabble through martial law, disease, and starvation having killed themselves off or at least knocked down the population significantly. You see, they’re going to step out into a brand new clean world with copious resources, all manner of species and resources to exploit and everything they need mysteriously and magically back to being able to support them and their blessed progeny into the bright future. Like the prosperity gospel, I think they’ll be somewhat surprised and/or disappointed when reality visits.
Not that I care, but is Orlov going to start writing children’s books or something?
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LOL. You’re best comment yet.
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Reblogged this on Gaia will prevail.
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What Is ‘Petcoke‘?
“The images are startling. Billowing black clouds darken the daytime sky as wind-driven grit pelts homes and cars and forces bewildered residents to take cover. The onslaught, captured in photos and video footage from Detroit and Chicago this year, was caused by the same thing: brisk winds sweeping across huge black piles of petroleum coke, or “petcoke,” a powdery byproduct of oil refining that’s been accumulating along Midwest shipping channels and sparking a new wave of health and environmental concerns. The piles are evidence of a sharp increase in North American oil production – particularly crude extracted from oil sands in Canada – that has been trapped in the Midwest because of limited pipeline capacity to carry it to the Gulf and West coasts, leading to unprecedented amounts of oil refining and petcoke production in the Midwest…”.* *Read more here from the AP: http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Piles-of-petcoke-raising-anger-in-Midwest-5011319.php
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“Now scientists are focusing on warmer water, lower oxygen levels, and acidification as possible causes…”
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Desdemona Despair always scares the hell out of me:



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Now for an excellent overview of the eco-apocalypse that is already upon us:
Welcome To The Desert Of The Real: The Inevitability Of Radical Climate Change
He(Robert Hunziker) even mentions that methane is much more damaging right out of the gate in its first few years:
Methane (CH4) is over twenty times more powerful, over a 100-year period, per molecule, than is carbon dioxide (CO2). Or, put another way, methane is more effectual than carbon dioxide at absorbing infrared radiation emitted from the earth’s surface and preventing it from escaping into space. Methane, during its first few years upon entering the atmosphere, is 100 times as powerful as an equal weight of CO2.
The only shortcoming in this essay is that he glides over the fact that renewable energy is not sufficient to power our current way of life. Radical changes in every aspect of how we live are needed. This inevitably means that those currently enjoying their place in capitalism’s hierarchy of exploitation will have to relinquish their hold on power. Thusly, we have the stalemated class struggle between the coddled and heavily protected elite and the dumbed-down masses who live hand to mouth.
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Thanks for the links, Mike.
For the moment, the drilling, fracking, and tar sands extraction, the mechanised destruction of the environment to extract coal, the manipulation of energy prices, the creation of money out of thin air, the emptying of aquifers, the chopping down of ancient forests and jungles etc. are allowing the population overshoot and consumption overshoot to continue, and are generating INCREASED levels of global pollution, most notably carbon dioxide.
There has been much discussion in the alternative media recently concerning simultaneous imposition of stimulus and austerity by governments, and the bubble nature of most markets. Extraordinarily, the PTB have been able to keep the bubbles inflated (indeed expanding), despite all the fundamental factors worsening by the day.
I still have in the back of my mind the net energy Hubbert’s Peak, which suggests severe contraction of global liquid fuel supply as we fall off the cliff through 2016-2020. And there is the matter of increasing domestic consumption in many oil-exporting nations which is increasing the pressure on the global system, and especially on nations lacking domestic oil; Japan, Germany, Spain, Italy…..and a multitude of others.
Just a few months ago I was thinking in terms of diabolical environmental conditions prevailing across most of the Earth by around 2060. All the evidence indicates diabolical conditions have arrived in many locations and are just around the corner for a lot more people around the world -maybe by 2020.
I need to discuss the worsening situation with our newly-elected mayor; we already know that everything that matters will be worse at the end of his 3-year term than at the beginning. Does he want to make matters somewhat worse or a lot worse locally? Will he continue with the current policies of ignoring all the evidence, making things worse globally and locally as quickly as possible and ensuring no preparations whatsoever are made for the conditions that WILL prevail a few years from now?
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Demand destruction in action in NZ. (Tom mentioned $4 a gallon gas. Petrol here is currently NZ $2.15 per litre, which is around US$6 a gallon.)
Transport is costing New Zealand families 21 per cent more than it did three years ago, the Greens say.
That compares with a seven per cent increase in household spending on everything else, says transport spokeswoman Julie Anne Genter.
She’s citing figures from the latest Household Economic Survey.
“The increase in transport costs is driven by petrol and the purchase of cars,” she said on Monday.
“The cost of driving a car is rising but the government is failing to invest in giving Kiwi families affordable alternatives.”
Ms Genter is forecasting the price of petrol will continue to rise, making motoring even more expensive for families.
“Car travel per household fell by three per cent in the past three years – it’s clear New Zealanders want alternatives to driving.”
The Greens have consistently opposed the government’s $1 billion a year highway-building programme and say the money would be better spent on improving public transport.
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“Public transport is the only option left in a world facing coronary thrombosis with climate change.” – Darryl D’Monte, Hindustan Times
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Further evidence of the government/corporate symbiosis:
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Some readers of NBL may recall that an attempt to discuss Guy’s list of positive self-reinforcing irreversible feedbacks a few weeks back was wrecked by trolls and never got very far. I found Tony Weddle’s comments on the Climate Summary thread sufficiently irritating that I dumped some of my links re the Arctic Methane stuff there last night, so if anyone wants a quick overview, maybe any additional stuff to add ?
http://guymcpherson.com/2013/01/climate-change-summary-and-update/#comment-112131
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I gave up commenting on NBL after I had spent quite a long time composing a comment and it disappeared into cyberspace.
I like the comment-and-reply format that exists here, and the fact that comments appear fairly instantaneously.
I know you advised how to overcome the glitches in the NBL system but I got very tired of arguing with uninformed fools long ago and normally cannot be bothered these days.. .
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Arguing on a sinking ship is exasperating.
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Yes, Mike, especially when people insist that the ship is not sinking and that it is on course.
Several years ago I likened my local council to a bunch of people in a lifeboat stranded a long way from land who initially insist on throwing the compass and fishing gear overboard. Then they start boring holes in the hull while distributing all the rations for immediate consumption.
How do you deal with people who are insane, but have the power to wreck everything for everyone else? I’ve tried everything, and nothing works.
I really haven’t got a clue what to do these days, other than occasionally pointing out reality to a few people in positions of responsibility (see meeting with NPDC climate change officer).
I’ll be seeing the new mayor next week. It will have all got a bit worse by then.
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ulvfugl: well, looking over the comments at your link to climate change, it sure looks like you supplied Tony with at least the tip of a mountain of information (with more coming out every day) to answer his concerns. i think you have it right in your assessment of his underlying psychology (whether he knows it or not) – that he’s looking for a “way out” rather than accepting the outcome we have all arrived at (via the same route more or less). He doesn’t appear to be an actual troll like some of the obnoxious louts we’ve dealt with recently, but more of a person who has to check the info for himself (as if nobody has done this, like thousands of times!) before he can even begin to go through all the stages of acceptance and the dead end result we know is coming. You know how hard this all is (and the resulting depression, anger etc that we even got to this place when we were supposed to live for thousands of more years, supposedly). i’m sure he appreciates your efforts in answering his questions.
Have you seen this (i posted it over on NBL, but it hasn’t been approved yet, i guess):
http://enenews.com/study-finds-giant-strontium-90-release-into-body-of-water-begins-around-1000-days-after-meltdown-dec-5-2013-is-a-thousand-days-after-311-graphic-shows-very-high-levels-being-discharged-for-u
Study finds giant strontium-90 release into body of water begins around 1,000 days after meltdown — Dec. 5, 2013 = thousand days after 3/11 — Graphic shows very high levels being discharged for up to 50,000 days
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Thanks Tom. That news re Strontium 90 is appalling.
Why I was so annoyed by Weddle is that I gave him all that info way back in July/August and he ended up agreeing with me, and then recently it’s as if he forgot all that and begins all over again from scratch.
I am glad to see that G. Schmidt, who poses as the ‘go to expert’ is being exposed by others, because I consider his response re Shakhova and Semiletov and Wadhams was absolutely disgraceful, and he is STILL putting out the same crap.
He’s basically a mathematician who sits at a computer. Those others have actually been to the Arctic, not just once, but regularly for years and years, and he insults them and says he knows better, in support of his buddy Archer, who is an Exxon shill.
Note Schmidt’s weasel words ‘interesting’ and ‘unclear’. This is totally disingenuous, as if he was just now hearing about it, whilst it was all pointed out to him way back in the summer, and now he feigns this surprised innocence ? It’s his FUCKING JOB to know that stuff, same for Archer, they are paid and they have access to all the journals, if I can find it why can’t they ? Well, of course they CAN. Fuck ’em, gimme some truth and honesty…
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/11/arctic-and-american-methane-in-context/comment-page-1/#comment-429833
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I mean, this is really extraordinary. It’s repeat of what happened last time, I think in July, when the Wadhams paper came out.
Here’s Schmidt, saying ‘nothing to see, go back to sleep’.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/11/arctic-and-american-methane-in-context/comment-page-1/#comment-429877
Is the relevance to shallow hydrates in the ESAS really that difficult to see?
[Response: Yes. Because no one has actually reported them there or even provided any convincing evidence for what the sources of methane are. So while I am not saying that it has been conclusively ruled out, the absence of any positive evidence for any meta-stable hydrates in the ESAS, let alone at the levels being speculated about, let alone supposedly being at some heretofore never seen threshold, means that people should not start talking about some huge emission as if it was ‘likely’ or that it could ‘happen any day now’. Neither of those claims follow from the (real) uncertainty and it is irresponsible to claim they do. – gavin]
He just completely dismisses and disregards all the work of other reputable scientists, acknowledged world experts in the field, as if they don’t exist, and claims that HE is being responsible, and they are NOT ?
On the basis of the analysis of published data and in the course of the authors’ long-term geochemical and acoustic surveys performed in 1995–2011 on the East Siberian shelf (ESS) and aimed to research the role of the Arctic shelf in the processes of massive methane outbursts into the Earth’s atmosphere, some crucially new results were obtained. A number of hypotheses were proposed concerning the qualitative and quantitative characterization of the scale of this phenomenon. The ESS is a powerful supplier of methane to the atmosphere owing to the continued degradation of the submarine permafrost, which causes the destruction of gas hydrates. The emission of methane in several areas of the ESS is massive to the extent that growth in the methane concentrations in the atmosphere to values capable of causing a considerable and even catastrophic warning on the Earth is possible. The seismic data were compared to those of the drilling from ice performed first by the authors in 2011 in the southeastern part of the Laptev Sea to a depth of 65 m from the ice surface. This made it possible to reveal some new factors explaining the observed massive methane bursts out of the bottom sediments.
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1134%2FS1028334X12080144
That was published 2011, and we have much more since, and the continual updates from Arctic News on increasing methane levels from the satellite readings…
Trouble is, of course, those are Russian scientists, and what they are saying shows that Archer’s global survey of the methane risk was garbage.
3% of global emissions ? Small ? He’s showing he is CLUELESS. It does not matter that it is 3% of total global, it matters because it warms LOCALLY, and will remain in the Arctic atmosphere for a LONG TIME, increasing the loss of ice and therefore a positive feedback, more warming, more methane, more warming… wrecking the N. Hemisphere climate system.. etc, etc. quite apart from the ‘bomb’ risk.
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If the latest figures are accurate, it could mean that the greenhouse gas advantage that natural gas has over coal could be a mirage. The Energy Information Administration estimates that U.S. carbon dioxide emissions declined 12% since 2007, citing natural gas supplanting coal as a major reason. That number does not account for methane emissions however.
Read more at http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/12/new-study-finds-higher-methane-emissions-from-fracking.html#zpeH67dJpqiP4Myw.99
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Here is an explanation by someone called Blaine, as to how the methane could escape
~200m of water column is really the absolute limit of stability at cold temperatures. At freezing it’s ~300m.
Where natural gas is being produced, however, there’s often a significant overpressure. At large scale, the pressure can reasonably run up to the equivalent depth of rock column, or ~3x higher.
This gives minimum formation depths from the surface on land of ~66m for the cold limit and ~100m at freezing.
If we’re looking at above freezing at a depth of 100m which is generally representative of the East Siberian Continental Shelf, this we need at least ~66m more of rock.
This gives a thermal diffusion time scale of t = 66^2 / thermal diffusion coefficient. Plugging in a normal number for rock of 10m^2/year (large variance) gives ~440 years. So, yes, waiting for the temperature change to propagate takes a long time.
I think that what most people are missing here is that the normal state is an example of self-organized criticality. If gas is being produced steadily, the rock/ice/methane calthrate mass is ALWAYS close to fracturing strength. If there was no gas escaping, the pressure would just go up. State change can occur due to pressure change just as easily as due to temperature change.
Melt the top 10-20m of meters of permafrost, and the overpressure in that depth disappears, lowering the pressure beneath the permafrost. This will cause fractures extending downwards from the top of the permafrost. If the temperature is above the ice melting temperature, the pressure change alone will melt the top layer of calthrates, further continuing the process. Once there is flow from deeper, geothermally warmed layers, this heat will expand the fractures. With pre-Anthropocene temperatures, the dropping bottom pressure would eventually stop the transport and cause everything to freeze up again, and the system would be mostly quiescent until the next cycle.
This process goes on naturally all the time, but the eruptions of methane usually do not all occur at the same time, which has the potential to be the case with a large-scale surface melting trigger.
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/11/and-the-wind-cries-methane.html#more
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To be fair, the article you quote is speaking of methane hydrates – not metastable methane hydrates. Gavin and I were discussing the latter.
If his argument were simply that the amount of shallow hydrates is insignificant, I wouldn’t bother to argue. I’m dismayed that he doubts their very existence. This seems to me to be almost the equivalent of what we see from the WUWT crowd – just deny the existing science.
I’ll admit that they haven’t been found very many times, but no one has exactly been looking for them either. Still, they *have* been found and to deny their existence is really rather strange.
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Hello Kevin O’Neill, and nice to see you comment here. I don’t comment on RC, I am too rude, intemperate, fervent in my views and would be banned straightaway.
The fact that methane exists in hydrate form at all is quite weird, and until a couple of years ago I had no idea that such a form was possible, and I read the original Archer thing on RC when it first came out and accepted it, but since then, delving into the subject, I’ve become increasingly intrigued by what exactly is going on, because SOMETHING is not RIGHT about this whole story.
Yes, as I understand it, under certain peculiar conditions, mixed with particles, whatever, the metastable relic hydrates can exist, and appear to exist at lower temperatures and shallower depths. This would seem to be just one more oddity that gets discovered. Why would anybody want to lie about that, or publish dishonest results ? Why would anybody want to cast doubt on the possibility ? Seems to me, as members of the jury, we are not being told ‘the whole and nothing but the truth’ here.
Then there are the ordinary hydrates in the permafrost, at some depth, and the question as to how quickly the permafrost will thaw. Well, seems to me that it’s going to keep on warming, because nobody is going to argue the case that the Arctic is going to suddenly begin to cool again. So, sooner or later, that sea bed is going to warm up and those hydrates will expand into gas. So, then the argument is about how soon, how fast, and about the structure of the seabed, taliks, etc.
So, who should we ask about all that ? Well, seems to me the experts who have been going there and studying the fucking site for years, i.e. S & S et al, not Archer and Schmidt who have never been there. I mean people lost their lives getting the data, and to dismiss their work with a wave of the arm seems quite shocking to me. What’s going on behind the scenes to explain that ?
And then there is the free methane deeper down…
You see, as I said, I’m sitting in the jury, paying attention, trying to be a responsible human being here. From what I can gather, that methane has all been happily sitting there for at least 400k years, under what amounts to frozen mud and silt, which is now about to unfreeze.
That means it can all come out. Why not ? I do not see any reason why not. According to what Shakhova says, there’s enough methane there to wipe most life off the planet in an extinction event of the Peter Ward kind, if it all comes out pretty quickly.
Perhaps that cannot happen, for some technical reason or other. But nobody so far has explained to me in any convincing way what that technical reason might be.
Btw, there are also vast reserves on the Qingtian Tibet Plateau, which are in a somewhat similar state, I believe. So we only need to go up a degree or so and we’ll all be freaking out about that area. Not to mention the Antarctic.
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So we are left hanging…
it is still a small number. – gavin
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/11/arctic-and-american-methane-in-context/comment-page-2/#comment-431014
and Sam Carana’s very BIG numbers
http://arctic-news.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/the-time-has-come-to-spread-the-message.html
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Jay Hanson sent this news clip with the header “Corporate Insanity Intensifies”. I think it’s just plain sick. The mass consumption conveyer belt goes into warp speed with delivery drones…
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RE: Amazoid drone dumps. There’s at least two ‘good’ English words for ‘more shit faster’: specifically 1) dysentery and 2) diarrhea
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I don’t know who they’re going to be selling to with the middle class going belly up over the next few years, or the dollar falling from grace, or the next “black swan” landing and taking a shit on the global banking system. This is just ludicrous and won’t amount to anything but a bad investment. Every industry and corporation thinks they’re special and that nothing can touch them – they’re invincible! They’re going to have a rude awakening, and soon. I’m entirely convinced that by 2020 we’ll all know that it’s over in our lifetimes via a steep drop to oblivion through a combination of interacting events involving the climate, resource depletion, oil becoming too expensive, the world banking system implosion (to come), military and other violent strife everywhere, inability to grow enough food, potable water becoming more expensive than gasoline, disease (human, plant, animal, bird and fish) on a pandemic level as well as increasing radiation exposure, and infrastructure collapse among many other factors (including increasing volcanic, earthquake and sinkhole troubles).
If anyone wants a comprehensive article on radiation, here it is:
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/12/fukushima-radiation-hits-west-coast.html
What Is The ACTUAL Risk for Pacific Coast Residents from Fukushima Radiation?
Posted on December 1, 2013 by WashingtonsBlog
“[The Odds of] Longer Term Chronic Effects, Cancer Or Genetic Effects … Cannot Be Said To Be Zero”
(after opening comments he lists the 3 main sections)
This essay provides reliable information on what is really going on … based upon the known science. It’s divided into 3 sections:
I. Is Low-Level Radiation Dangerous … Or Harmless?
II. How Much Radiation Will We Be Exposed To?
III. How Can We Protect Ourselves from Radiation?
(it’s a long read)
some quotes (that indicate we’re in big trouble):
A major 2012 scientific study proves that low-level radiation can cause huge health problems. Science Daily reports:
Even the very lowest levels of radiation are harmful to life, scientists have concluded in the Cambridge Philosophical Society’s journal Biological Reviews.
“There is no safe level of radionuclide exposure, whether from food, water or other sources. Period,” said Jeff Patterson, DO, immediate past president of Physicians for Social Responsibility. “Exposure to radionuclides, such as iodine-131 and cesium-137, increases the incidence of cancer. For this reason, every effort must be taken to minimize the radionuclide content in food and water.”
“Consuming food containing radionuclides is particularly dangerous. If an individual ingests or inhales a radioactive particle, it continues to irradiate the body as long as it remains radioactive and stays in the body,” said Alan H. Lockwood, MD, a member of the Board of Physicians for Social Responsibility.
[a single ingested (or inhaled, I might add,) microscopic particle will kill you]
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Yes, Tom.
However, I’m inclined to think that there are now so many factors tottering on the brink that there has to be major rupturing of present arrangements well before 2020. In fact I cannot envision Japan lasting more than another couple of years, what with the spectacular failure of Abenomics and the on-going nuclear catastrophe.
TOCOM Crude Oil JPY/kl 68,990.00 +1,290.00 +1.91% May 14
There are more people packed into oil-dependent cities than the entire population of Australia.
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Yesterday I sent out an email to a long list of people concerning the meeting I had with the local council’s climate change officer, during which I pointed out we are in the early stages of complete meltdown of planetary systems. And ‘nobody’ is at all bothered.
Here is what I sent as a summary of the meeting: .
I raised the following points with Colin Comber, New Plymouth District Council climate change officer, at our meeting on Friday, 29th November, 2013. On most points he had nothing to say.
1. The forcing factor for methane has been raised from 23 times CO2 to 34 times CO2. Even that multiplier understates the warming potential in the short term, and a figure of at least 100 times should be used for methane bursts.
2. Recent methane bursts in the East Siberian Sea have resulted in 2000ppb, which is equivalent to over 200ppm CO2 in the short term, making the total CO2 equivalence 600ppm (at least). The extraordinarily high concentration of greenhouse gases has resulted in rapid temperature increases in the Arctic (up around 1C since 2006, despite the huge amount of energy involved in melting ice.).
3. 2012 saw the lowest ever summer ice area.
4. The current Arctic ice area is hovering around two standard deviations below the historic average, but much of the ice is thin and new, making 2013 the lowest stable ice volume ever.
5. Atmospheric CO2 hit 400ppm earlier this year. It troughed at 393ppm (photosynthesis cycle) and is on its way up; it is anticipated to reach 403ppm April-May 2014.
6. The heat forcing of current atmospheric CO2 is equivalent to around 400,000 Hiroshima-size bombs being exploded every day.
7. The present level of atmospheric CO2 is 40% above the pre-industrial level and corresponds to a sea level 23 metres above current; the reason we don’t have an immediate sea level rise is the thermal lag of warming deep oceans and converting ice into water. Such a level of CO2 has not been experienced any time in the evolution of humans over the past 2 million years. Indeed, for much of our recent history the CO2 level was around 180ppm and there were thick ice sheets as far south as central England.
8. The IEA has announced we are on track for a rise in average temperature of 3.5oC by 2035. Such a temperature rise puts temperatures beyond anything experienced in human history and most of the Earth into an uninhabitable zone. Interestingly, NZ governments quote the IEA as the best source of information when it comes to energy but completely ignore the IEA when it comes to unwelcome information about climate. The IEA is talking about a runaway greenhouse gas situation.
9. Acidification of the oceans [due to absorption of anthropogenic CO2 from the atmosphere] is proceeding at an unprecedented rate, leading to stress of organisms dependent on bicarbonate cycle for shell formation. Industrial activity is altering the chemical and biological composition of the oceans at a rate greater than that of the great Permian Extinction Event which wiped out 95% of life on Earth. Continuation on the current path of burning fossil fuels will render the oceans uninhabitable to most existing marine species, and then wipe out most terrestrial species.
10. I was personally shocked to see millions of jellyfish on a local beach recently. Although my observation has no scientific significance it is indicative of the ‘death of the oceans’ I have been reading about; we are transforming the oceans back to some primeval form, similar to that of 600million years ago, wiping out the species (turtles, sunfish etc.) that feed on jellyfish and loading the oceans with toxins. I had previously noted the paucity of sea life in rock pools compared to 30 years ago (this is presumably not from over-collection, since the beach has been designated a maritime protection zone).
11. Whereas previous five mass extinction events (other than the one that wiped out dinosaurs) were due to natural volcanic activity, the present mass extinction event is due to industrial activity and emissions from industrial activity.
12. An unknown amount of radiation is leaking from the crippled Fukushima reactors into the Pacific Ocean. People on the west coast of the US are now extremely concerned, particularly since mass deaths of sea life are now being frequently reported.
13. Australia recently reported the highest ever October temperatures (corresponding with the earliest severe wildfires).
14. Typhoon Haiyan was the biggest storm ever to make landfall and resulted in unprecedented damage. This was due to extraordinarily hot sea water associated with ocean warming. An excellent essay on Nature Bats Last highlighted the fact that prior to the Second World War people in the region lived without the ‘benefits’ of civilisation, and when storms smashed things up they just picked up the pieces and rebuilt their huts, got water from lakes and rivers, and went back to fishing from small boats: now they are unable to do any of that because all the natural, sustainable systems have been ruined or covered with concrete and asphalt, and civilisation resulted in a population explosion that resulted in far more victims than there would have been if development had not occurred.
15. If we imagine to Earth totally covered with industrial civilisation (no land available for food production) it is clearly not sustainable. 90% covered by civilisation is not sustainable. Nor is 80%. Not even 50% is sustainable. The current level of civilisation utilises about 43% of the primary production of the Earth and has resulted in a 0.85C rise in average temperature. That 0.85C rise is already having catastrophic effects (meltdown of the Arctic, super-storms etc.)
16. The fact that we already have meltdown (lowest Arctic ice, extraordinary storms, death of corals etc.) at 0.85C above the long-term average indicates that we are already in overshoot with respect to population and resource consumption. Despite the fact that we have reached the meltdown stage, governments persist with policies predicated on increased population and increased resource use, which is completely insane. NPDC advocates the same kind of insanity on a daily basis.
17. The previously proposed ‘safe’ level of temperature rise of 2C is not safe at all, and was only ever an arbitrary number. But climate specialists now admit that warming cannot be restricted to 2C anyway, and that we are on track for a 4C or 6C rise in average temperature, i.e. a largely uninhabitable planet in a matter of decades, probably by 2060, which would be within the normal lifespan of children living today. If the International Energy Agency is correct the Earth will be largely uninhabitable by 2040.
18. Nothing whatsoever is being done to curtail emissions. International negotiations are a farce predicated on ‘kicking the can down the road’ for as long as possible. NPDC policy, mirroring that around the world, is geared to increasing CO2 emissions, via increased population, increased use of concrete, increased dependence on internal combustion engines etc. I quoted the incident I had witnessed of two petrol-powered vehicles being used to deposit and level gravel on a path in Pukekura Park when one person with a wheelbarrow could have done the job (and 50 years ago that was how the joib was done); meanwhile, the mulching machine in operation in the park prior to our meeting would have consumed more energy in a few hours than the electric bikes the council promotes would save in a year.
19. Extraction of conventional oil peaked over 2005 to 2008, and the economic system is now being propped up by desperation measures centred around fracking, deep-sea drilling, extraction from tar sands etc. As well as consuming ever-greater amounts of energy, such activities increase the emissions associated with fossil fuel extraction, thereby exacerbating the climate catastrophe.
20. We cannot look to John Key or Jonathan Young or Andrew Little for leadership on environmental issues: they are simply opportunists acting as agents of global corporations and money-lenders; they implement policies favourable to global corporations and money-lenders which entail trashing the environment, generally as quickly as possible.
21. NPDC is fully currently committed to destroying the futures of the young people living in the district and elsewhere via resource depletion and environmental collapse, as indicated by the huge display in the council foyer, which announces that NPDC spends 2c of every dollar collected promoting economic growth. (Economic growth equates to increased resource consumption and increased emissions.)
22. The present economic has no future because of energy depletion and because it is increasing the level of pollution, both locally and globally. Continuation on the present path of searching for and burning fossil fuels results in an uninhabitable planet within decades. Drastically reducing fuel consumption leading to total abandonment of fossil fuels is the only sane option. (It may be too late for that, but it is still the only sane option.)
23. This is not a matter of priorities. Surely there can be no priority higher than ensuring the next generation has a habitable planet to live on. The system ignores the most important priority of all, and therefore the system is INSANE.
24. Everyone within the system pretends nothing is wrong and that the system has a future even when a modicum of rational thought indicates it doesn’t (infinite growth on a finite planet is mathematically impossible.)
25. The composition of the new council give us no reason for optimism and many reasons for extreme pessimism.
26. The main reason the general populace of the district continues to ‘behave badly’ -purchase and use oversized vehicles, cover land with concrete and asphalt, consume at unsustainable levels etc.- is because they are encouraged to by NPDC. The only message they get from the council is that everything is rosy (when the reverse is the case and we are mightily close to collapse).
27. The overuse of internal combustion engines is causing severe health problems globally and within the district. Coupled with consumption of jink food, mechanised transport is causing obesity and other diseases. Consumerism is generating a freak society, and each week that passes the ‘freak show’ becomes more bizarre.
28. There is a culture of ‘spend, spend, spend’ amongst council officers, with utterly ridiculous projects being undertaken. Apart from being totally unnecessary, these concrete and steel projects put additional CO2 into the atmosphere and bring forward abrupt climate change and an uninhabitable planet, are financially crippling the district, and pushing those on low fixed incomes ‘off the cliff’.
29. I pointed out that I spoke with Gary Bedford, regional environment officer, prior to returning to NP in 2006, and raised the matters of Peak Oil and Abrupt Climate Change; he ‘did not want to know’ and has done nothing whatsoever to protect the district. Indeed, he is on record as making absurd statements such as: “Climate change will be good for Taranaki.” I wish to have a follow-up session with him.
30. I have been proven right on practically everything I said in 2006 and subsequently to variously composed councils since 2006. Council officers have been proven consistently wrong. But it makes no difference how often council officers are proven wrong, nothing in the system changes and the insanity continues.
31. NPDC has been provided with the most accurate data and analysis available over many years (particularly my submission to the draft plan 2013), and NPDC has ignored it all. Hence, everything that matters has got worse and will continue to get worse by the day.
32. As far as I can establish, Colin Comber is the only council officer in a position to challenge the nonsense churned out by the bulk of the administration, in so far as all the policies advocated by senior council officers result in increased emissions and an ever faster meltdown of the global and local environment. I pointed out to him that he has ‘sat on his hands’ since our first meeting (around 6 years ago) and everything has got worse as a consequence.
Kevin
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I’ll correct a few typos and make this excellent summation its own post.
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Okay Mike.
Some notes.
John Key: NZ Prime Minister.
Jonathan Young: MP for the city
Andrew Little: List Labour MP for the city (MMP system).
Andre Judd: recently elected (October 2013) mayor of the city.
What is particularly interesting for me is that Jonathan Young, Andrew Little and Andrew Judd all have copies of my most recent book ‘The Easy Way’ (which details most of what is discussed on CoIC and NBL etc.) and that I had several sessions with Andrew Little on the content of TEW, and numerous sessions with Andrew Judd prior to his election.
English/NZ got = American gotten. It is said that the American form is the old English form (as in forgotten). We are seeing gotten creeping in as language evolves.
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Your book on Amazon? Sent by drones? Really, though, how do we get it?
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he got himself a new wife vs he had gotten himself into a fix.
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Hi Kevin
If humour is allowed on a serious issue could it be part of the problem is Colin Comber is as thick as an ice sheet, the sort that was prevalent during the last Ice Age? 🙂 As well as plain terrified as to the implications he dully comprehends in what you are saying?
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‘It is difficult for a man to understand something when his salary is dependent on not understanding it.’
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yon Moon in the first Image is how it looks when in the Nor’ Nor’ West, while the view of the planet is towards the North East. Another example of how pathetically & needlessly stupid things have become [gotten].
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