Tags
Age of Limits Conference, Bill Maher, Climate Change, Climate Tipping Points, Eco-Apocalypse, Environmental Collapse, Extinction of Man, Guy McPherson, John Michael Greer, Michael Sosebee, Near-Term Extinction, Peak Oil, Somewhere In New Mexico Before The End Of Time, The Archdruid Report, Zachary Quinto
I saw yesterday that peak oil historian John Michael Greer weighed in on the current debate over NTE or near-term extinction for humanity. After reading his post The Pleasures of Extinction, I was quite disappointed in his outright dismissal of the possibility of NTE in the face of recent unprecedented climatic changes. His post does not address any of the scientifically backed findings which, with business-as-usual, point to an uninhabitable future for mankind, let alone most other flora and fauna. Indeed, the predictions of the IPCC have been proven to be much too conservative and do not take into account known positive feedback loops. As they say on Wall Street, past performance does not necessarily predict future results. Even if all human-generated CO2 ceased today, we have a future of environmental catastrophe awaiting us with what has already been pumped into the atmosphere. Referring to NTE as “apocalypse machismo”, Greer paints it as some sort of passing cultural fad in keeping with other doomsday scenarios our culture has popularized, such as the Mayan Prophecy of 2012 or the Rapture of Christian Fundamentalists. He also lumps NTE in with the suicide pacts of lunatic-fringe cult groups:
…Those of my readers who remember the Solar Temple mass suicides of 1994 and 1995 may recall that the collective suicide note left behind by the members of that ill-fated order made exactly that claim: Earth would be uninhabitable by the year 2000, Solar Temple founder Luc Jouret insisted, and so the initiates of the Solar Temple were getting out while the getting was good.
After reading through the numerous comments on Greer’s post, I found several people who had the same incredulous reaction I did:
And this one…
Here was Greer’s response to the above comment by Andrea:
WTF? The science is not the essence of the argument??? I suppose we could say the same for Peak Oil, Ocean Acidification, The 6th Mass Extinction, The Global Die-Off of Forests, etc. They are all part of the doomsday narrative that people are pushing with no science backing up the essence of their argument. Must be a global conspiracy created by some shadowy network of armageddonists.
Besides the cultural obsession with doomsaying which Greer describes in his essay, what reason does he give for why people are pushing such disturbing arguments? Well, he answers that in his comments section:
Mr. Greer, aren’t you a part of this apocalypse lobby? And is Peak Oil the only reality you subscribe to?
Michael Sosebee, producer of the documentary Somewhere In New Mexico Before The End Of Time, chimes into the conversation at this point:
Greer then responds…
Then Michael Sosebee says…
Greer quips back…
I hear that both Greer and McPherson will be speaking at the Age of Limits conference next week. Hopefully those two can have a debate which someone could videotape for us. Greer better beef up on his climate science.
Ah well, a little controversy never hurt sales. I hear that Nicole Foss of the Automatic Earth will soon join the NTE discussion shortly…
As for my opinion on why all the public fascination with Zombies, Post-Apocalyptic narratives, and the like, I believe it’s the collective subconscious of society bubbling up. For those who dig deeper and actually study what is happening in the world, it’s like looking into a bottomless abyss or the Pit of Hell. If you are honest with yourself, the seeming invincibility of humans and their industrial civilization dissolves before your eyes.
Collapse of Industrial Civilization 
I lost interest in John Michael Greer’s self-absorption and grandstanding about 5 years ago.
Jim Kunstler is another verbose and witty has-been who is well past his use-by date. I’m not sure if he is still waiting for Obama to deliver on ‘hope and change’ but 5 years ago when I pointed out to Kunstler that Obama was just another bought-and-paid-for liar he told me to f.o.
Anyone who thinks the laws of chemistry, physics and mathematics do not apply to their particular planet is a fuckwit,
I’m afraid this planet has more than its share of fuckwits, many of them held in high esteem for some reason.
Peter Goodchild did some great work on resource depletion and then shot himself in the foot by denying the reality of climate change. I haven’t heard from him for many months, following heated exchanges that demolished practically everything he said on climate.
Looking forward to Guy McPherson demolishing JMG.
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I had Goodchild on my RSS links briefly until I read this half-wit post:
http://survivepeakoil.blogspot.com/2013/03/socialism-and-self-esteem.html
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Not sure why Nicole Foss is still able to command attention. She clearly does not understand Peak Oil or the chemistry of Abrupt Climate Change
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There’s a similar discussion going on at another presenter’s blog, Orlov’s post called “Look for loopholes to avoid extinction”. I left this comment:
A dispassionate appraisal of amplifying feedbacks should lead any reasonable person to conclude that humans will not survive this episode of climate change. Aside from that, climate change is only a symptom of the deeper problem with our species, which is unbridled growth and consumption.
This thoughtless habit is resulting in other existential threats that, despite the large corporatist denial machine, tend to be even more neglected than the acceleration of climate change.
For instance one person mentioned that rising seas will lead to polluted water, which is a good point however, the fact is, we are already dumping our waste into the oceans, just by a slightly more circuitous route. Eventually all the cosmetics, medications, heavy metals, etc work their way through the ecosystem to the water.
Similarly, the air is fouled everywhere whether you can see it or not. Tropospheric ozone is invisible but the precursors from fuel emissions travel from Asia across the Pacific to the US, and from North America to Europe. Round and round it goes, with the persistent background level constantly rising as inexorably as CO2.
Since ozone happens to be even more toxic to vegetation than it is to people, it underlies a world-wide decline in forests. Again, people don’t see it even though it’s quite obvious should you trouble to personally engage a tree that the branches are breaking and the bark is falling off and the foliage is skimpy. We can say goodbye to a major CO2 sink as well as lumber, shade, nuts, many fruits, and predictable precipiation.
In a perfect parallel, the coral reefs are perishing before our eyes. So even if we hadn’t already overfished to the point where 90 percent – ninety percent! – of all large fish are gone from the sea, without the nurseries represented by reefs, there will be no recovery.
Overall my expectation is that humans cannot last in a world so degraded and depauperate once industrial civilization has its permanent siezure. It was difficult enough to be a hunter gatherer when the world was teeming with lush flora and fauna. Without the wealth of biodiversity, it has been rendered impossible.
Mike I’m so delighted you wrote about JMG!! I might have chimed in myself at his blog, except I was moderated off that site for being “off-topic” of a post titled something like “how fast will the collapse occur”, when I suggested, long before I started reading NBL, that climate change is always followed by mass extinction (according to the paleoclimatic record – you know, that fact-based fossil evidence stuff).
You already included the more incredible, scientifically ignorant statements made about NTE, and It should suffice to say that JMG not only believes in magic, he believes he practices it. But in this case it’s pretty obvious that he is having a little tantrum in advance of the Age of Limits event, because he’s threatened by the presence of Guy, who will be a presenter there for the first time. So he started a pissing contest, and his followers have dutifully gone over to Guy’s blog and left hostile, ignorant smears there as well as their home base.
One of his loyal commenters made it explicit:
“I notice that Guy McPherson will be coming to this year’s Age of Limits Conference. It will be interesting to see you two debate your ideas in-person. While I’m open to hearing views different than my own, which can spark good debate and discussion, I hope Guy’s voice remains just one of many viewpoints there, and doesn’t change the overall focus of Age of Limits. If the NTE belief becomes popular in certain peak oil circles, I worry that it will distract focus on the important work that needs to be done to benefit people who will be alive centuries into the future. If one believes in NTE, what’s the point in concerning oneself with the hard work that needs to be done?”
The entire post was a cringe-inducing unsubtle swipe specifically at Guy’s formulation of NTE based on tipping points in climate – and then JMG, incredibly audacious, you have to concede, claimed in comments:
“John Michael Greer said…
…I know precisely nothing about Guy McPherson, and I certainly wouldn’t deny him the right to speak his piece; I think what he’s saying is mistaken and actively harmful, but then there are plenty of people who think that about me, too. It’s the sudden spread of the extinction fad into the wider culture that has me watching with a frown.”
“I know precisely nothing about Guy McPherson”? Srsly? They’re both going to be presenting at the same conference in ONE WEEK, with only a handful of others, and JMG knows precisely nothing about Guy? Well, I now know precisely something about JMG – he’s a bald-faced liar.
He’s also got all the sophistication of an illiterate teenage boy:
“…it’s common knowledge among young women in the Pacific Northwest (several of whom mentioned this to me) that the bigger a truck a young man drives, the less he has to drive with in a certain other sense. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to hear that a similar rule applies on your side of the planet — and it’s interesting to speculate what that says about those of us who don’t feel the need to own a motor vehicle at all. ;-)”
At any rate, this kerfluffle – which I hasten to point out, Guy has resolutely abstained from dignifying by engaging – has been amusing for me the past couple of days. With all the emotional trauma of dealing with NTE, I’m always grateful for comic relief. I’m signed up for Age of Limits – it’s not terribly far from home – and I had been planning to skip JMG’s session but since you ask, Mike, maybe I’ll bring my camera and record the fireworks, ha! Here’s the last comment I left at NBL on this topic:
. Before I had any idea of the deep schisms among (for lack of a better description) doomers/preppers/Cassandras, I read many books and blogs -including his. I left some comments there and really was perplexed and dismayed to be ridiculed, shushed and finally banned on the spurious precept that I was (gasp) off-topic because I was too apocalyptic, when the stated topic of that particular post was something like “how fast will the collapse occur?”!
. For a while I was trying to learn about various issues – financial, environmental/climate, peak resources (as Jeff described in this post…what I call the trifucta) – without the benefit of realizing how many petty egos had staked out territory and, far from wishing to cooperate, were (and still are) in competition with each other for funding and attention. It was disconcerting and upsetting on numerous occasions until I realized the ideological tyranny that underlies even supposedly objective scientific territory (I’m talking about you, RealClimate).
. Now that I come to think about it, such turf war in places that you’d think would be above such squabbling is a rather good example of exactly why we are so screwed in general. Another is this image by Chris Jordan (if you haven’t seen his fantastic art, I really recommend checking out the other categories on his website from the artwork drop-down menu, especially Running the Numbers and Intolerable Beauty) which are mostly stunning photographs that enlarge many times to show they are constructed of tiny bits of garbage and industrial detritus, mostly) but anyway, this particular image is meant to be uplifting and depict the connections between “…one million organizations around the world that are devoted to peace, environmental stewardship, social justice, and the preservation of diverse and indigenous culture. The actual number of such organizations is unknown, but estimates range between one and two million, and growing.”
. Whereas to me, those organizations aren’t connected or coordinated at all, and THAT’S a big part of the problem why all the well-intentioned people trying to save the world are utterly ineffective. He has created a pleasingly symmetrical symbolic design but if it were me, it would look more like a hodgepodge heap of junk, I’m afraid. http://www.chrisjordan.com/gallery/epu/#e-pluribus-unum
.
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LOL. Even the prospect of human extinction can’t prevent human pettiness and ego from fouling things up.
Good Lord! Things just get more foul the harder one peers into the abyss.
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Mike, meant to leave this link to two new studies, since you brought up JMG’s inability to understand the ramifications of underestimated effects:
http://www.climatenewsnetwork.net/2013/05/arctic-tundra-will-turn-to-forest/
“…the results showed that scientists might have badly underestimated the effect of existing carbon dioxide levels in altering the climate over time.:
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Ocean heat puts pressure on poorest fisheries
May 18, 2013
Since 1970, our warming seas have driven fish across the world into cooler, deeper waters, potentially threatening fishing in Earth’s hottest seas. By analysing worldwide fish catches, Canadian and Australian scientists have found that the proportion of warmer-water fish caught has steadily grown. And in future, the warmest waters are set to become too hot for some of the fish that might previously have been caught there….
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Its sad that there seems to be a battle of egos here, too much focus on the people and not the problems at hand. I do believe both Greer and McPherson have important information, only they choose different paths to tell them. Neither of them are any good really to get the public on board in my opinion.
While Greer feels we can solve the whole problem by not worrying too much about the climate problem – but by focusing 100% on solutions like scaling down and living closer to nature – McPherson really doesn’t offer a solution but just a bleak NTE view. In that sense I perfectly understand Greer placing McPherson in a doomsayer position. In some way its true as McPhersons view might just make people think even stronger that “I cant do anything about this”. If you know the comet is coming, why not have a party instead? Where Greer fails is a generalisation as you say, Mayan calendar loony stuff has absolutely nothing to do with climate change and AGW besides the fact that if we don’t do anything about CO2 emissions we can clearly tip the planet over in a new state.
So I feel Greer took the wrong stance in completely ignoring the science of climate change and its important that we get the story out that we are indeed messing with the atmosphere. Its like, the more worse case scenarios become, the more “doomer and should be ignored” they are. This is an odd viewpoint. This is rather wrong as you constantly need to have the worst case scenario in your mind when making choices, as taking a wrong step might be fatal. I believe the fact that IPCC talked about ice free summers in the Arctic in 2080 – while we now see its going within the next 5 years – means that worse than worse case predictions is where that’s going. Considering how silent the climate science has been around possible methane emissions, I have sort of waited for a respectable climate scientist coming out and saying there is no chance of a massive methane emission. For every day there is silence about that, the more I think that they either don’t know enough or they simply don’t want to scare the bejesus out of people. The latter has proven to be a bad choice as you so easily are put into the “doomer” category and people stop listening to you. It would be a bad choice if climate scientists were ignored in the last hour of possible actions (as we see the denier sphere is so hard to market these days).
No doubt, with the end of economic growth there will be catabolic collapse like Greer talks about – but that doesnt mean there wont be serious aftershocks from massive CO2 emissions in the past going on at the same time. Even with a slower economy there is no guarantee that we wont be burning anything we can get our hands on either, further increasing the CO2 levels.
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John, it has been my observation thus far that very few people will change from being someone who “does something” into someone who “has a party” based simply on the point of view expressed by someone else, even if they hold that someone in high esteem. Guy McPherson presents the facts about climate change as we have them now and then takes them to their logical conclusion. That happens to be NTE. Despite that, there is still a very healthy debate on his site about “doing something” vs “doing nothing”. The most recent essay, in fact, supports doing something, so even Guy thinks that it’s better to do something than to go quietly into the night.
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JC
‘McPherson really doesn’t offer a solution but just a bleak NTE view.’
I think that is very unfair.
About 6 years Guy resigned his secure position at Arizona State University to go back to the land and to promote simpler living with a low carbon footprint, low thermodynamic footprint, and working with nature rather than against it.
His problem was he chose the wrong place to do it (New Mexico) and got clobbered by rapidly deteriorating environmental conditions -especially climate change driven drought band extreme temperature. Even until a year ago, when he came to NZ and stayed with me, he was promoting deindustrialisation as the sensible response to ever-increasing climate concerns; indeed deindustrialisation or collapse of the industrial system as the only way out of the burgeoning climate catastrophe.
More recently he recognised that:
1. society is not going to follow the lead he and I, and many others have provided
2. it is now almost certainly too late
That said, he continues to fight the insanity of industrial living (as I do), knowing there is a degree of futility because:
1. it is the right thing to do
2. we have the opportunity to reduce the suffering that is to come (as opposed to the agenda of those in power, which increases the suffering to come)..
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It’s vital that we stop lying to ourselves and face the future with the full facts. Even amongst so-called experts in the field of resource depletion like JMG, it is clear that we are not doing that. Why? For fear of becoming gravely despondent and giving up? We cannot begin to even take the necessary actions if the full horror of our situation is masked.
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Yes I agree that Guy is a person of personal action within his own means – and I understand he is trying to tell us something. But his choice of words and attitude probably doesnt win a lot of new supporters in a time where we need the average John Doe to wake up from slumber.
He might be right that we wont be able to solve this, in which case we are surely headed for doom (or NTE), no matter what the timescale is. But its important that he is able to get some attention in the public media, even the likes of Young Turks and such. Lately I feel his NTE message decades away has really scared off a lot and placed him in a sterotypical doomer position – which I know is unfair.
So dont get me wrong, I want Guy’s message to get out – the biological record of humans impact cannot be refuted, and we need to realise that its happening at a rate of dramatical change even within a human lifespan.
Still Guy is a fresh contrast to the “solutions” side of things – I guess sometimes you just got to be shaked out of your sleep when a train is approaching and you are securely tied to the rails.
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This essay tells you everything you need to know for why McPherson is the way he is:
On being a radical – Nature Bats Last
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McPherson doesn’t offer a “solution” because there IS NONE.
At this point, all we have are various possible strategies for coping with the next few years. The time for “solutions” is long past.
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It bothers me that people decide what the truth is about the future based on their fear that if the truth happens to be no hope at all, that no one will work toward solutions because nothing will help. The truth should be the truth regardless of where it leads. Poo poo on Greer for not being honest with himself.
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I can’t remember the exact quote from Chris Hedges, but it was something like this:
“We are so disconnected from reality that we can no longer make rational decisions that affect our future.”
So how can we make the right decisions if we hide from the truth?
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i check out NBL now and then, he never seems to have much new content, and we must have our spectacle.
JMG? he does a new post on a regular basis. on this last one he belittles the NTE idea, then turns right around and says,
“The hope all along was that industrial civilization could achieve a permanent peace with the world of nature and continue up the infinite road of progress without leaving a scorched and looted planet in its wake.
That hope is dead. If there was ever a chance to achieve it, it went whistling down the wind decades ago, and at this point the jaws of resource depletion and environmental degradation are tightening around the collective throat of the world’s industrial societies, in exactly the fashion predicted in detail forty years ago in the pages of The Limits to Growth.”
so, which is it? as i said on his blog, i would never say the entire species is down for the count, we may just be too smart (and savage) for that. still plenty of animals to kill, etc. etc.
once the population does crash there will be an abundance of material with which to rebuild. lots of steel leaf springs in junkyards for tools and weapons, every highway overpass is a potential underground dwelling, just tear down the telephone/light poles and use them as walls. water will be the problem, but then every car hood is a potential catchment basin.
the skyscrapers? pretty useless, good luck breaking down that structural steel w/o fuel to cut it apart, or killing yourself. nah, scavenging will be on a small scale for the most part, that’s the way i have it figured. always look on the bright side. 😉
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I was planning on attending this showing, but didn’t make it.
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i like the comment about societal sanity, read “The Sane Society’ when i was still a teenager. population levels have to do with competing imperatives, the species will behave in ways they see as benefiting themselves individually.
pastoralism is the only answer, but it takes money, and the wealthy aren’t going to let their wage slaves out of the cages.
so that’s Guy McPherson, doesn’t look like a wild eyed radical, seems reasonable. i will go to NBL to watch the film.
love the comment about our leaders flying to events to talk about green initiatives, if they were serious they would have Locomotive One, not Air Force One, with modern communication the Prez could do everything he needs to do from a luxury railroad car.
the Green Resister has a good point.
i’m not liking what he says about the Southwest, it’s pretty close to home base, North to Alaska! the Dust bowl is all too real around these parts.
here’s a link
http://dissidentvoice.org/2013/05/the-end-walking-away-from-apocalypse-with-guy-mcpherson/
he is a professor of ecology, and while i disdain most educated types (especially in the social sciences) my feelings do not extend to the good professor, that being said, i do respect truly educated people. my experience is that most intelligent people go against the grain of establishment orthodoxy.
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Not really fond of the 350.org bashing as I feel Bill McKibben is really using the one tool left to raise awareness, by demonstration and civil disobedience, much like James Hansen does as well. Clearly just speaking about the consequences doesnt work very well any more as scientists have been at this for decades now and there is still “debate” about the science even if its settled within science itself. I think nothing will really happen unless enough people gather in mass protests to show how they feel about being ignored about this issue. 350.org is doing a wonderful job at massing people imo. The 350 is really just a symbol, one blown a long time ago now that we race past 400.
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Mike, I’ve not visited your site before but I’ve read your comments on NBL and have appreciated them. Enjoyed this post. Honestly, I don’t know anything about JMG except what I’ve read about him in comments on various blogs. I can’t remember ever reading anything very positive about him. Consequently, I’ve never visited his site. If that many people have so much substantive negative thought about him, I can’t see the reason to bother going to his site.
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Great refutation of JMG! I attempted to read a couple of his abjectly ignorant, irrational and loquacious posts years ago (linked from Energy Bulletin, which also became inane) and couldn’t get past his magical hopium. I’ve developed a “theory” that 80-90% of all humans fall into one of 3 classifications… half wits, dim wits and nit wits, from low to lower to lowest understanding and intelligence. I’d never been able to determine, until now, whether JMG was “dim” or “nit” but his latest work sways the conclusion to the “nit” class. Regardless, I’m also quite certain that Guy is still overly optimistic after I watched a recent interview when he stated that “we have 17 years” (I beg pardon for paraphrasing). I’m quite confident that the number is definitely less than 10 and probably less than 5. I don’t see anyone, anywhere even mentioning, let alone considering, the real 500 lb gorillas in the room. Perhaps the DoD brainiacs have considered them but they’re not talking, as usual.
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Colin.
For far too long I kept thinking there were intelligent people in the community who could think rationally and could be persuaded to take the necessary actions if provided with the proper information..
I recognised what you wrote to be true, and for quite some I have been expressing the same idea a little differently as:
Most people are:
uninformed
stupid
stubborn.
You have left us hanging because you wrote: ‘I’m quite confident that number is definitely less than 10 and probably less than 5.’ But you have not elaborated on the ‘real 500lb gorillas in the room’.
.
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Mr. Moore,
I concur and fully empathize with all you said and have used the terms you’ve listed on more than a few occasions. In fact, for nigh on 2 decades now, I’ve been asking anyone and everyone within earshot, “In a country ‘governed’ by the ‘majority,’ what happens when the ‘majority’ are ignorant, ill-informed and irrational? Do you think we’re finding out now?” The typical response is a blank stare and “Want another beer/toke?” (Sometimes “worse.”) So I usually settle for the offered “pacifiers.”
As to leaving “us hanging,” isn’t that the “company approved” tactic du jour for movies, TV series, “news” articles, etc., anything of alleged or construed “importance”? Nonetheless, I beg pardon for any undue anxiety that may have caused. However, the best I can do for now is to refer you back to NBL in case you have “missed” my comment(s) there…
http://guymcpherson.com/2013/05/resistance-is-the-only-ethical-response-to-near-term-extinction/#comment-72495
http://guymcpherson.com/2013/05/resistance-is-the-only-ethical-response-to-near-term-extinction/#comment-72715
I hope that suffices for now. I am (have been for “a while”) working on a “complete” article but my growing misanthropy makes progress difficult. Yet, the recent few posts on NBL (and a couple of other sites) keeps compelling me to put all the pieces together since no one else seems to “get it.” As yet another “teaser” (with advance apologies) I’ll state the following (which has only, exclusively garnered abject dismissal and aspersions, perhaps it will be “different” this time)…
Global Warming is not the problem.
The melting ice and subsequent sea-level rise are not the problem.
The drought(s) is(are) not the problem.
Burning fossil fuels is not the problem.
The economic/financial shenanigans are not the problem.
Overpopulation is not the problem.
In point of fact, these are all merely symptoms of the problem.
Of course, in order to “solve” any problem, one must first identify said problem.
Otherwise, addressing any of the above in a “compartmentalized” manner, is tantamount to treating a completely severed leg, at mid-thigh, with Q-tips and finger-tip band-aids, beginning with the smallest capillaries. Thus, the “patient” dies.
Last “clue” for now…
Morpheus: That you are a slave, Neo. Like everyone else you were born into bondage. Into a prison that you cannot taste or see or touch. A prison for your mind
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For anyone who is following this saga with as much bemused pleasure as I (and still days to go to Age of Limits!) this is a worthy post as well:
http://in-gods-name.blogspot.com/2013/05/archdruidreport-john-michael-greers-nte.html
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Excellent post. Of course none of us were able to see the censored comments so I’m glad they were included in her essay. Great collection of authoritative studies and reports on our dire situation. No wonder Greer censored it. It’s like turning your back to the sun.
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I am way behind all this stuff on xraymike’s great site, but I think this, from Carolyn Baker’s Speaking Truth To Power website, may be a good addition to the discussion…..
On The Acceptance Of Near-Term Extinction,
By Gary Gripp
And it just got presented today.
Our small segment of the population, the collapsetnet people, are coming out with more and more that seems to justify Guy McPherson more and more.
http://us1.campaign-archive2.com/?u=b8e53c620300ae88791163048&id=6fb2d24339&e=f0754ee742
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Good grief! Mankind is in bad shape:
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used to be people believed in something, not no more, myself included. i have become truly, the Heretick
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Watch out. They do strange things to heretics…
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Pingback:
It seems as if JMG is getting a hammering over his article
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So much information and misinformation to absorb. I’ll limit myself to one idea: eschatology. The doctrine that it doesn’t matter since we’re all doomed anyway so go ahead and lay waste is somewhat balanced by the competing doctrine that it doesn’t matter since we’re all doomed anyway but go ahead and act as if what we do matters because it’s a moral imperative. I’m not sure it’s possible to assert that either of these positions is quite right, but if I had to choose, I’d opt for the second.
What have I actually done? Very little beside learn and understand to the best of my ability, which has led only to hand-wringing acceptance. I also observe that although the NTE message is getting out there and what thinking public exists is choosing from among various possible intellectual and behavioral responses, we’re all still faced with implacable forces so far beyond our own control (geological, evolutionary, and even those of human culture) that the pointlessness of formulating any response can easily lead to complete and utter nihilism. That’s a lot closer to eschatology than I want to be, so I’ll struggle to breathe a little while longer but probably won’t fight too hard in the end. Others will no doubt continue to suffer their torments.
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Brutus,
I have to say I love your comments. If you ever want to do a guest post or cross-post your musings here, I’d be much appreciative.
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By the way, have you seen this film?
Somewhere In New Mexico
Before The End Of Time
http://sosebee2.wix.com/sosbeetv
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Since when is a narrative false by virtue of its resemblance to another narrative?
I have kept reading Greer despite my disappointment with “The Long Descent.” Perhaps now I can stop.
Reality intrudes. And if it’s arguing ad hominem to suspect vaguely that such monomaniacal stubbornness in maintaining a point I can’t quite discern may have something to do with Druidism, then I plead no contest.
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FWIW, I think Charles Eisenstein (with David Abram, Morris Berman [“consciousness trilogy”], and others) is onto THE problem: an ideology-slash-mythology that exalts the ego above anything & anyone else, denying the true relationships undergirding life itself, let alone genuine, awakened spirituality. The Ascent of Humanity lays it out beautifully—and is available for the reading online in its entirety. (http://charleseisenstein.net/2013-the-space-between-stories/, see the “books” menu at the top)
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Colin….
“In a country ‘governed’ by the ‘majority,’ what happens when the ‘majority’ are ignorant, ill-informed and irrational? Do you think we’re finding out now?”
I totally agree, which is why I advocate a ‘Sustainable Security Licence to vote’; whereby only individuals who both (a) procreate and (b) consume and produce; below carrying capacity levels, and (c) can pass an ecoliteracy quiz, should be entitled to vote.
In fact here is the MILINT Earth Day argument I have and am currently making to the worlds Generals and Admirals…. (http://tygae.weebly.com/milint-earth-day.html). Constructive critical feedback most appreciated.
As I have noted elsewhere, liberals could not even end the Vietnam war, it was military resistors (See Sir, No Sir) who helped end that war, hoping that gumbaya liberals can bring down industrial civilization is fucking pointless. We need to find ourselves an army. There are dozens and dozens of admirals and generals, and soldiers very concerned about climate change and peak resources. Even if there is 0.05% chance of convincing them of this imperitive, is it worth it?
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Overview of Military Necessity Justification for Implementing Temporary Sustainable Security Coup d’état De-Industrialization:
[1] Climate Change is a Global Security Threat – National Security Experts
[2] Climate Change is a Near-Term Extinction (NTE) Threat in absence of urgent immediate actions to massively reduce carbon emissions – Scientists
[3] Currently available Political Options for Military Officials Concerned about National Security Imperative to Reduce Global Security Threat and possible Near Term Extinction (NTE) threat of Climate Change:
[3.1] Military Appeal to American/World Citizens to ‘Walk their Talk’ of ‘Supporting the Troops’, by massively reducing their energy consumption, by – for example – “planting victory gardens, cutting down on fuel use, saving scrap metal and old rubber, sacrifices, or maybe just examples of common sense and prudent lifestyle changes.”
[4] Policies Required for National Security Imperative to Reduce Carbon Emissions aggravation of Scarcity – Conflict Climate Change National Security Threat and Near-Term Extinction; currently only available by invoking Military Necessity Coup d’état’s:
[4.1] End Breeding War: Political Demographic policies required to give citizens incentives to reduce procreation to below carrying capacity to reduce their Scarcity – Conflict aggravation of Climate Change National Security Threat and Near-Term Extinction:
A. Scientist: Every Child Increases a Woman’s Carbon Footprint by a factor of 20: A woman can reduce her carbon footprint 19 times more by having one fewer child than by all other energy efficiency actions the E.P.A. suggests combined.
[4.2] End Consumption War: Economic policies required to implement Relocalization, De-Industrialization and Primitivization:
A. Scientist: Only Civilization Collapse will prevent runaway global climate change: Industrial Civilization / Consumption Developmentism as Heat Engine Root cause of Scarcity-Conflict Climate Change-National Security Impending Near-term Extinction reality.
[5] Ending Breeding and Consumption War National Security Policies are currently impossible to implement, except by invoking Military Necessity Coup d’état ’s because:
[5.1] Corporate Media’s Pro-Growth Agenda: Silence/Censorship/Non-coverage of Scientific study results advocating Sustainable Security (Walking the National Security – Scarcity & Conflict — Talk to Support the Troops): ‘Procreate/Consume below carrying capacity’
[5.2] Corporate Media’s Pro-Growth Agenda is the cause of Citizens Eco-Illiterate ignorance of how to contribute to Sustainable Security: Procreate and Consume below carrying capacity, to avoid scarcity induced resource war conflict; and elect Eco-Literate politicians to enact sustainable laws.
[5.3] Tragedy of the Dunning-Kruger Democracy Commons: Eco-Illiterate Taker Cheater (conditional co-operators and free rider) citizens elect Eco-Illiterate Taker Cheater (conditional co-operators and free rider) Politicians.
[5.4] Nash Equilibrium Game Theory: International Cooperation requires politicians who are issue specific unconditional co-operators – Leavers. Milgram: Obedience Study: 92% of citizens who are conditional co-operators and free riders (65%); which only leaves 8% who are capable of issue specific unconditional co-operation. Consequently, universal franchise One Man, One Vote means that conditional co-operators and free rider Taker citizens elect conditional co-operators and free rider Taker politicians. Electing Eco-Literate Unconditional Co-operators politicians requires only licensing Ecoliterate ‘unconditional co-operators’ with a license to vote.
[6] Military Necessity Evaluation of Worst Case Scenario’s: Implementing Coup d’état De-Industrialization vs. Green Economy:
[6.1] De-Industrialization Coup d’etat Worst Case Scenario: Implement Coup d’état De-Industrialization and Sustainable Security Constitutions: we mitigate ecological collapse, and our children have a survivable sustainable security opportunity to manage the path towards a de-industrialized low/no tech, agrarian future.
[6.2] Green Economy Worst Case Scenario: Do nothing and allow Politicians to Implement Green Economy Industrial Revolution: we keep industrial civilization heat engine lights on for a bit longer, which fails to reduce carbon emissions; activating runaway global climate change and near term extinction. We send our children into a climate furnace involving ecological collapse and extinction for humanity and millions of species.
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Sign MILINT Earth Day Petition to White House at wh.gov/zjyC:
Avoid a Coup d’état, by implementing Sustainable Security Relocalization, De-Industrialization and Primitivization.
We demand Sustainable Security Relocalization, Decentralization, De-Industrialization and Primitivization policies, by 22 April 2014 – 09:11 GMT; & turning off all coal, nuclear & fossil fuel sources to the National Grid on 22 April 2015.
If we are too few or ignored; we call on the US Military to participate in worldwide simultaneous temporary Coup d’état’s; to enact Sustainable Security Constitutions (a ‘SusSec Licence to Vote’ policy).
If we fail, we confront the extermination of humanity, by 2100, due to runaway feedback confluence of ecological tipping points.
Our failure to act by 2014/15; will aggravate the runaway feedback confluence, rendering it impossible & futile to act later.
“We’ve got to act now.” – Gen. Wesley Clark, NATO ’96-99
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Thank you, Lara. I see you are quite familiar with the broad scope of humanity’s cascading conundrums, perhaps more-so than even myself. Alas, I’ve yet to have enough time to thoroughly peruse your TYGAE content but have managed to read a small portion. I am fairly certain that I completely concur with most of your observations and conclusions. If I’d found your thoughts 30 yrs ago, or I was 30 yrs younger today, I’d probably become a vehement supporter of you and your efforts. However, as I commented further up the thread, knowing what I am absolutely certain of now, I don’t see any possibility that even half the planet’s population will survive more than another 10 years, max. Those that may survive through the next decade will surely be seeing a much harsher environment and I sincerely doubt that they will consider themselves “lucky” and most of them will not see 2050, let alone 2100.
Fossil fuels have enabled humanity to implement a system that “functions” with no more “intelligence” than cancer cells. Just as any given form of cancer eventually kills the host (yes, I know SOME cancers can be “cured” [choke] with treatments often worse than the disease), so too have we achieved the “beyond treatment” phase. However, since neither the planet or humanity is a “singular” organism (neither is a “single” human) I can’t say with absolute certainty that there will be zero inhabitable, i.e. livable, regions, just that as with life in general, those will be due to “dumb luck”, I have no idea where they might be, and for those who find themselves in such a region, they will find new meaning in the phrase “eke out a living.” Beyond that, I do wish you and those you care about all the best. Perhaps when I have more time I can find a place/means to contact you directly on one of your web-sites. You do intrigue me and I think we could have an intellectually stimulating discourse, if you are so inclined.
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Hi Colin,
Indeed I would be most interested in hearing from you. There is a contact page on my site, which emails me directly. Once received, we can continue via email.
Ten years huh!! Amazing!! I think its gonna be longer, but I may not know what you know.. so I won’t disagree on your conclusion. Look forward to hearing from you.
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I recommend that you copy JMG’s style of posting comments and publicy replying to each one. (This is amoung JMG’s greatest ideas for creating discourse). I also posted a reply to the site and referred him to the NTE website. He was also rebutted by the organizer from the age of limits conference:
“Hi John
In the end, we all bet on our favorite horse, if for no other reason than as primates we enjoy the chatter.
Whether predicting Near Term Extinction, Stair-step Decline, Olduvai Gorge, Shark Fin or a slow graceful transition into a rose colored egalitarian future; in order to plan, mitigate or adapt to collapse, we all must choose for ourselves a knowable outcome we can grasp in the present, from the un-knowable future complex of possibilities.
To my mind, after taking a long hard stare into the abyss, the only knowable future that can be stated for a certainty is that we are entering a period of un-knowable and unspeakable human suffering. That prediction is sufficient.
I invited Guy McPherson to participate in this years Age of Limits conversations, not because I agree with his position, but because his particular knowable outcome of choice is argued from the science and can be examined in the light of that science.
It is also clear to me that Guy has made hard and difficult personal choices in order to come into accommodation with his own sense of ethics, and that his personal process of examining those choices and ethics is ongoing. These are things I respect in anyone.
As you and I have discussed, at some point the science of collapse becomes as well understood as it can be and we within the “doom-o-sphere” are left with little more to say of substance. And it is as that point that the real spiritual journey begins. And that spiritual journey is the only path we can follow through the bottleneck that we all now face.
best wishes
Orren Whiddon
Age of Limits”
His reply:
”
Orren, the ironic thing is that I didn’t know that McPherson was promoting the NTE thing when I wrote this post. I don’t read a lot of blogs, other than a few peak oil and ecology news aggregator sites; I was responding to a flurry of comments and emails I’d received on the order of “well, we’re all going to be extinct anyway, so why bother making preparations?” As for Age of Limits, one of the things I appreciate about the event is that it’s got a wide range of different viewpoints among its presenters — Dmitry’s a fast-crash partisan, for example, and iirc Albert Bates thinks that with enough biochar we can fix things and not crash at all, though I haven’t read his recent work and will have to ask him. Having an extinctionist as one of the speakers is another step in the direction of dissensus, and thus a good thing. ”
Clearly he is having second thoughts on this article. Those of us in the know, who are trying to establish and alternative social view point, need people like JMG. Lets not trash each other, lets forgive mistakes and learn from them.
I also read you site several times weekly and I believe you are amoung the minds directing us towards a new age! Keep up the good work- but lets try to avoid scapegoating, and picking on each other.
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I totally agree with you here. As I said in a previous comment about this, I think we should try to keep both thoughts in mind at the same time – one about the facts of science telling us the planet is heading for a new state if we keep up this rate of consumption – and the other that humanity needs to take up their spades again and ready themselves to a more sustainable lifestyle.
JMG is wise if he starts to study how seriously humans are impacting the biosphere, and that its really a race to get enough people to understand this in order for humanity to have any chance really at implementing JMG’s agrarian dreams, or any other constellation that is more sustainable. Although one could argue that 7 billion people and agriculture alone isnt sustainable in the long run, I guess changing our ways would give us more time to shape the future.
Personally I dont think any classical government form would work at all for this. Its clear that 7 billion ego’s cant change fast enough, and considering e.g. how far away socialism is in the minds of people in USA – I suspect its already too late.
Basically I think this is whats going to happen: The “debate of climate science” and its impacts will go on in the next 10 years – the people in power still working for the people with the money. There will be outbursts of rioting and demonstrations, big organisations like 350.org will be very visible in the media and everywhere, but politics and John Doe will regard them as dissidents. There will be severe economical disruptions as demand rise above supply of oil. Many will loose their jobs, the governments will get into trouble with how they take care of their poor (think Greece in many more countries). The summer ice is gone in the Arctic, temperatures on the planet will rise and we will have some serious weather incidents. Many of these will not be fixed due to the cost, insurance companies and banks topple… after this I dont know really. If enough people support a leader in their country to “solve the problem” they will most probably listen to the advice based on lower living standards, but this depends again on how much of the rich is still controlling governments – for those countries with huge differences in wealth there will be serious rioting going on. I am not sure if the outlook is good really for most.
What I suspect though is that a falling consumption will come through scarcity and with it a fall in CO2 emissions. But the climate systems motion is hardly started now so we will see major changes in the coming decades in spite of a cooldown of emissions. But I am not so sure if it will crash completely as people will need heating for their homes or shacks or whatever. Humanity has always been good at burning stuff for cooking and keeping warm, only the last time this was the primary energy source we were under 1 billion people. Not sure the planet can endure 7 billion people chopping trees to keep warm and cook their food. Some sort of technology alongside this is needed, and a strong will to distribute wealth and promote equality for all in the community. This totally crashes with what we have all been told in the west at least so I am sure there will be some serious clashes between people with broken dreams and those who are trying to figure out how to survive.
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Re: The non-adaptability of the powerful (from Aldous Huxley)
I believe it will not be possible for humanity to reverse course corporately on greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, short of resorting to mass action rather than working to persuade the powerful, we will not avoid the worst of the climate change that has only begun to break over our heads (much more heating is already in literal deep storage in the oceans) or forestall a massive dieback of humanity in the next few generations at most. That is because of the systems of power that hold sway and because of the people those systems draw into powerful positions. The following passage has done much to give me a handle on why corporate power seems such a decisive dead-end.
______________
Of all social, moral and spiritual problems that of power is the most chronically urgent and the most difficult of solution. Craving for power is not a vice of the body, consequently knows none of the limitations imposed by a tired or satiated physiology upon gluttony, intemperance and lust. Growing with every successive satisfaction, the appetite for power can manifest itself indefinitely, without interruption by bodily fatigue or sickness.
Moreover, the nature of society is such that the higher a man climbs in the political, economic or religious hierarchy, the greater are his opportunities and resources for exercising power. But climbing the hierarchical ladder is ordinarily a slow process, and the ambitious rarely reach the top till they are well advanced in life. The older he grows, the more chances does the power lover have for indulging his besetting sin, the more continuously is he subjected to temptations and the more glamorous do those temptations become.
In this respect his situation is profoundly different from that of the debauchee. The latter may never voluntarily leave his vices, but at least, as he advances in years, he finds his vices leaving him; the former neither leaves his vices nor is left by them. Instead of bringing to the power lover a merciful respite from his addictions, old age is apt to intensify them by making it easier for him to satisfy his cravings on a larger scale and in a more spectacular way.
That is why, in Acton’s words, “all great men are bad.” Can we therefore be surprised if political action, undertaken, in all too many cases, not for the public good, but solely or at least primarily to gratify the power lusts of bad men, should prove so often either self-stultifying or downright disastrous?
“L’état c’est moi,” says the tyrant; and this is true, of course, not only of the autocrat at the apex of the pyramid, but of all the members of the ruling minority through whom he governs and who are, in fact, the real rulers of the nation.
Moreover, so long as the policy which gratifies the power lusts of the ruling class is successful, and so long as the price of success is not too high, even the masses of the ruled will feel that the state is themselves—a vast and splendid projection of the individual’s intrinsically insignificant ego. The little man can satisfy his lust for power vicariously through the activities of the imperialistic state, just as the big man does; the difference between them is one of degree, not of kind.
—Aldous Huxley, The Perennial Philosophy (New York: HarperCollins Perennial Classics, 1945, 2004), pp. 121–122 (with paragraph breaks added). The quoted passage leads to the final three pages of chapter 6, “Mortification, Non-Attachment, Right Livelihood,” richly repaying close attention.
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I accept the cautionary note not to “trash” anyone (though I do feel I merely disagree without disrespect as a matter of principle; Congresscritters & their ilk are an exception, with whom I briefly at times explore the territory beneath contempt).
Though I do still feel that “The Long Decline” was generally dismissive in tone, I also can see here that JMG is rethinking, as I would hope anyone would who is receiving added info. Although my time is limited, I’ll at least continue to keep up with his posts. “Tropic of Chaos” is one summary of now-visible signs & worldwide prospects that has given me both a sober respect for the real challenges that lie ahead & a note of optimism flowing straight from those challenges & the human adaptability that has brought us thus far.
I can’t escape the notion that such adaptability is not an attribute of the powerful, who are in a position to help the species reverse course on GHG emissions, which does not inspire optimism. I’m about to share on Facebook an arresting passage on the theme, and I’ll reproduce it here as well.
Finally, I appreciate the civil tone of the discussion here. I too find XRay Mike to be indispensable reading & urge his work on others every chance I get.
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One earlier commenter interpreted McPherson’s message as [to paraphrase] “If industrial civilization does not utterly collapse in the next very few years there can be no escaping Near Term Extinction (NTE). But in my own conversations with McPherson he has made it clear that he can imagine no possible scenario in which NTE can now be averted. In other words, his view (correct me if I’m wrong, Guy) is that current atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have forced the climate system beyond a tipping point (with positive feedback loops) which must inevitably result in NTE, regardless of whatever humans might not do to mitigate the situation.
McPherson is very nearly alone in this assessment and interpretation of the available scientific data. But this is no reason to dismiss him. What is needed, I think, is a puplic debate among qualified scientists — which could be posted on YouTube, etc., and made available to the whole wide world for free.
McPherson’s influence, though not great, is growing and deserves to be folded into the public conversation — if only because his message has caused some to quit serving a healing / transformative approach to the crisis. Those people need to understand that McPherson’s prognosis might well be wrong and that their transformative efforts are needed.
I myself have not given up hope that humanity can avert worst case scenarios like NTE, but I do suspect that we’re at a very dangerous crossroads. In all likelihood, our only real hope of averting worst case scenarios entails a sudden and dramatic abandonment of the current extremely high energy intensity global / industrial economy. This means quitting the car-culture, the coal-fired electric grid, industrial agriculture, etc. Not all of it all at once, but nearly. Bicycles, feet, hand tools, etc., would have to replace cars, trucks, and most of the machines we now depend upon. Wind and solar energy (etc.) — “renewables” — can replace some, but by no means anywhere near all of the current net energy. (We are, as Richard Heinberg has made clear, at “peak net engergy”.)
The ecovillage model / movement, along with bioregionalism, permaculture, etc., are very relevant examples of the direction our transition must take.
I doubt that it’s too late to begin to heal our world. But nothing less than a total commitment will do.
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xraymike
I would like to discuss possibilities of your attending Age of Limits in 2014, you can reach me privately at the email provided
very best
Orren Whiddon
Age of Limits
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